The development of modern science and technology tends to accompany environmental crisis and ecological degradation. And the evaluation of the security condition of the forestry ecosystem has become an urgent task. This paper details the development of a decision support system (the FESEDSS), which was built to provide a range of actors with an effective tool for the evaluation and governance of forestry ecological security in China. The FESEDSS considers multiple factors through a general decision-support framework, making possible the calculation of ecological security indexes and relative indexes for the forestry ecosystem and its three subsystems (forest, wetlands and desert) at both the national and provincial level. The system integrates econometric models, mathematical methods, geographic information systems and a dynamic database, providing users with an understanding of spatiotemporal patterns and regional differences in the ecological security of the forestry ecosystem and its three subsystems in China’s 31 provinces. Results generated using the FESEDSS and addressing the period 1999–۲۰۱۲ demonstrate a positive change in forest ecological security condition and a negative change in wetland and desert ecological security. Spatially, the ecological security of the forest subsystem was shown to have improved significantly in eastern and central China, while in the western region it experienced degradation. The ecological security of wetland ecosystems performed well in the southwest region and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; and desert ecological security was shown to be of a higher standard in south of Qinling-Huaihe Line than in the northern regions of the country. The overall forestry ecological security condition (which integrates the three subsystems) demonstrated an upward trend with some fluctuations, with high values generally being located in the south and low values in the north of the country. Finally, the paper also discusses performance, uncertainty, and implementation challenges, as well as detailing potential extensions of the FESEDSS. The paper lays a foundation to the national forestry ecological security evaluation and monitoring.

Introduction

China is a populous country with a vast territory and a tremendous diversity of biological resources. In recent years, however, its forest ecosystems have begun to suffer severe degradation as a result of human disturbances of differing durations, intensities, frequencies and types (Dai et al., 2006). A large proportion of the country’s wetlands have been converted to industrial, agricultural and construction land uses; this, in combination with environmental pollution and an excessive utilisation of resources, has in turn led to reductions in the quality of wetlands and a marked decrease in biodiversity. Human activities such as the overexploitation made possible by land reclamation, practices of overgrazing and the degradation of water resources have all further contributed to advancing land degradation and soil erosion, a trend ultimately linked to a soaring rate of desertification. In order to resolve the ecological problems addressed above, China’s central government has put forward a series of policies and schemes to improve ecological security. Environmental protection forms one of the country’s basic national policies, and the government has also mapped out a number of important strategies to realise sustainable economic development. Ecological security is one of the most important aspects of environmental protection. Maintaining ecological security has become a critical task for human societies, in our attempt to achieve sustainable development in the 21st century (Wang et al., 2014; Li et al., 2014). The “forestry ecosystem” – a term put forward here to describe the management of not only forest ecosystems but also wetland and desert ecosystems – guarantees the biological function and terrestrial eco-environment of the earth (Lu et al., 2002). The higher the level of stability and security within the forestry ecosystem, the greater the level of protection it in turn can offer in relation to the environment as a whole. The evaluation of the security condition of the forestry ecosystem has thus become a hot topic in the research community. An urgent task exists in establishing a decision support system to effectively evaluate the ecological security of forests, wetlands and deserts and scientifically extends the results of such evaluations via practical applications.