Coffee production has long been culturally and economically important in Puerto Rico. However, since peaking in the late nineteenth century, harvests are near record lows with many former farms abandoned. While value-added markets present new opportunities to reinvigorate the industry, regional trends associated with climate change may threaten the ability to produce high-quality coffee. Here, we discuss the history of coffee in Puerto Rico, outline important bioclimatic parameters, and model current and future habitat suitability using statistically downscaled climate data. Model projections suggest that warming trends may surpass important temperature thresholds during the coming decades. Under high (A2) and mid-low (A1B) emission scenarios for 2011–۲۰۴۰, Puerto Rico is projected to exceed mean annual temperature parameters for growth of Coffea arabica. Warming and drying trends may accelerate after 2040 and could result in top producing municipalities losing 60– ۸۴% of highly suitable growing conditions by 2070. Under the A2 scenario, Puerto Rico may only retain 24 km2 of highly suitable conditions by 2071–۲۰۹۹٫ High temperatures and low precipitation levels can result in diminished quality and yields, as well as increased exposure and sensitivity to certain insects and diseases. The climate data and models used are based on best current understanding of climate and emission interactions with results best interpreted as projected climate trends rather than predictions of future weather. Planning, innovation, and adaptation provide promising avenues to address current and future socioecological challenges while building a model of sustainable and resilient coffee production in Puerto Rico and throughout the region.

Introduction

Climate change is presenting challenges to agriculture and forestry worldwide. The Caribbean region has been deemed especially vulnerable due to its geographic and economic scale, exposure to extreme weather events, and reliance on tourism and imported goods (Mimura et al. 2007; Barker 2012; Gould et al. 2015). Regional climate models project a 2°–۵ °C increase in annual mean temperature for the Latin American and Caribbean region (LAC) by the 2080s (Karmalkar et al. 2013). Climate projections averaged over large areas may assist in discerning large-scale trends useful for national and state level planning and policy, but may fail to provide small-scale farmers and land managers the level of detail needed to justify adaptive practices and investments (Mase and Prokopy 2014; Henareh et al. 2016). In Puerto Rico, downscaling of global climate models has revealed rates of anticipated warming and drying beyond that of projected regional averages (Henareh et al. 2016; Appendix I). Recent research highlights the need for more explicit analysis correlating downscaled climate projections with desired bioclimatic conditions to better understand cropping system vulnerabilities with local specificity (Mase and Prokopy 2014; Brown 2016). The objective of this paper is to begin addressing this gap by employing statistically downscaled climate data (Henareh et al. 2016) to model potential suitability for coffee growth in Puerto Rico at a 450 m resolution with the goal of supporting planning and management decisions. As the second most traded commodity in the world, Coffea is enormously important for the millions of people that depend on it directly and indirectly for their livelihood. Coffee production has now spread to 70 countries where, as in Puerto Rico, it is still predominantly grown in mountainous regions by limited resource, small-holding farmers (ICC 2009). Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora (Robusta) are the most cultivated species, both evolving as shade tolerant, understory plants within the tropics of eastern and western Africa and thriving within a relatively narrow range of bioclimatic parameters (Teketay 1999). Coffea arabica is used in specialty coffees, draws a higher price, and accounts for the majority of production in Puerto Rico and the world (Monroig 2015). It is also the more climatically sensitive of the two species, flourishing in annual mean temperatures between 18° and 22 °C (∼۶۴°–۷۲°) (Davis et al. 2012), while C. canephora may thrive in temperatures up to ∼۲۷ °C (Bunn et al. 2015). C. arabica has been noted to grow in areas with annual mean temperatures up to 24°—۲۶ °C (∼۷۵ °F) (Teketay 1999); however, prolonged exposure at or above 23 °C (∼۷۴ °F) can result in accelerated flowering and loss of quality. Exposure to temperatures above 30 °C (86 °F) can lead to abnormalities and severely stunted growth (DaMatta and Ramalho 2006). Differences in temperature tolerance relate to precipitation distribution throughout the year and average soil moisture content (Teketay 1999)