مقاله انگلیسی رایگان در مورد پیش بینی سرعت و قدرت باد قطعی – IEEE 2019

IEEE

 

مشخصات مقاله
ترجمه عنوان مقاله چشم انداز فعلی در مورد دقت پیش بینی سرعت و قدرت باد قطعی
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله Current Perspective on the Accuracy of Deterministic Wind Speed and Power Forecasting
انتشار مقاله سال ۲۰۱۹
تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی ۱۸ صفحه
هزینه دانلود مقاله انگلیسی رایگان میباشد.
پایگاه داده نشریه IEEE
نوع نگارش مقاله
مقاله مروری (Review Article)
مقاله بیس این مقاله بیس نمیباشد
نمایه (index) Scopus – Master Journals List – JCR
نوع مقاله ISI
فرمت مقاله انگلیسی  PDF
ایمپکت فاکتور(IF)
۴٫۶۴۱ در سال ۲۰۱۸
شاخص H_index ۵۶ در سال ۲۰۱۹
شاخص SJR ۰٫۶۰۹ در سال ۲۰۱۸
شناسه ISSN ۲۱۶۹-۳۵۳۶
شاخص Quartile (چارک) Q2 در سال ۲۰۱۸
مدل مفهومی ندارد
پرسشنامه ندارد
متغیر ندارد
رفرنس دارد
رشته های مرتبط جغرافیا
گرایش های مرتبط آب و هوا شناسی
نوع ارائه مقاله
ژورنال
مجله / کنفرانس دسترسی – IEEE Access
دانشگاه  Department of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Massey University, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand
کلمات کلیدی قطعی، سرعت باد، قدرت باد، دقت پیش بینی، شاخص های آماری نرمال شده
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی  Deterministic, wind speed, wind power, forecasting accuracy, normalized statistical indicators
شناسه دیجیتال – doi
https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2951153
کد محصول  E13975
وضعیت ترجمه مقاله  ترجمه آماده این مقاله موجود نمیباشد. میتوانید از طریق دکمه پایین سفارش دهید.
دانلود رایگان مقاله دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی
سفارش ترجمه این مقاله سفارش ترجمه این مقاله

 

فهرست مطالب مقاله:
Abstract
I. Introduction
II. Deterministic Wind Speed and Power Forecasting Classification
III. Methodology
IV. Conclusion
Authors
Figures
References

 

بخشی از متن مقاله:
Abstract

The intermittent nature of wind energy raised multiple challenges to the power systems and is the biggest challenge to declare wind energy a reliable source. One solution to overcome this problem is wind energy forecasting. A precise forecast can help to develop appropriate incentives and wellfunctioning electric markets. The paper presents a comprehensive review of existing research and current developments in deterministic wind speed and power forecasting. Firstly, we categorize wind forecasting methods into four broader classifications: input data, time-scales, power output, and forecasting method. Secondly, the performance of wind speed and power forecasting models is evaluated based on 634 accuracy tests reported in twenty-eight published articles covering fifty locations of ten countries. From the analysis, the most significant errors were witnessed for the physical models, whereas the hybrid models showed the best performance. Although, the physical models have a large normalized root mean square error values but have small volatility. The hybrid models perform best for every time horizon. However, the errors almost doubled at the medium-term forecast from its initial value. The statistical models showed better performance than artificial intelligence models only in the very short term forecast. Overall, we observed the increase in the performance of forecasting models during the last ten years such that the normalized mean absolute error and normalized root mean square error values reduced to about half the initial values.

Introduction

In recent years, wind power is the most competitively priced technology in many markets. According to Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) Annual Report 2018 [1], the cumulative wind power installed during 2001 to 2018 is 591 GW that is expected to reach 908 GW by the end of 2023 as shown in Fig. 1. Despite providing more than half of renewables growth [2], the intermittent nature of wind raised multiple challenges to the power systems and is the biggest challenge to declare wind energy a reliable source. The challenges that raised to the power system due to the intermittent nature of wind includes planning and operational difficulties, quality of power, and standard of inter-connections. For example, the system operator needs to allocate additional energy reserves in case any power fluctuation occurs between programmed and actual power produced. This additional reserves would increase the operational costs, which subsequently increases the final energy prices [3]. Albadi and Saadany discussed a detailed review of wind power intermittency impacts on power systems [4]. One solution to overcome this problem is wind energy forecasting. A precise forecast would help to develop appropriate incentives and well-functioning hour-a-head or dayahead electric markets [5].

ارسال دیدگاه

نشانی ایمیل شما منتشر نخواهد شد. بخش‌های موردنیاز علامت‌گذاری شده‌اند *