مقاله انگلیسی رایگان در مورد ارزیابی ریسک اختلال در زنجیره تامین به دلیل شیوع کووید 19 – اسپرینگر 2022

Abstract

     The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted many economic activities around the world. The complete and partial lockdown policies, as well as the closure of borders by many countries has halted trade, consequently disrupting domestic and international supply chain networks. Like many other countries, various economic sectors in Pakistan also bore high economic losses due to these disruptions. Multiple studies have analyzed on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on different economic sectors in Pakistan, i.e. construction, accommodation and food, manufacturing, wholesale and retail goods, energy, and the information and communication sectors. However, no study has examined sorting these economic sectors based on supply chain disruptions due to the pandemic. Therefore, this study aims to observe the resilience of these economic sectors and perform sorting using three predefined classes, i.e. severe, moderate, and low disruptions. For this purpose, we propose using the novel methodology fuzzy VIKORSort, which is the major contribution of this paper. This methodology evaluates the aforementioned economic sectors based on 10 criteria. The results of the study revealed that the accommodation and food sector, along with the construction sector, experienced the most severe disruption, followed by manufacturing, wholesale and retail goods, and energy, with moderate disruption, whereas the information and communication sector bore the least disruption. The proposed methodology will help the researchers and authorities deal with sorting and decision problems to prioritize the preventive measures of such undesirable events.

Introduction

     The advent of the twenty-first century has brought different catastrophic disasters to the face of the earth. Some of the deadliest disasters of the twenty-first century include the 2003 European heatwave, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, the 2008 Nargis Cyclone, 2010 earthquake in Haiti, 2015 earthquake in Nepal, the 2018 Camp Fire in California, and the Australian Bush fires of 2019–2020. All these disasters resulted in millions of human fatalities, along with billions of dollars in economic losses. Currently, the world is facing a new, unpreceded epidemic disaster, a contagious disease called COVID-19, which has disrupted almost every activity around the world (Sarkis et al., 2020). To tackle this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) urged all countries to adopt preventive measures such as avoiding social gatherings, imposing lockdowns, curfews, travel limitations, and restricting economic activities (Anderson et al., 2020).

     The novel outbreak produced a sudden shock in the global economy, which disrupted the supply and demand cycles of different economic sectors. For instance, people compulsively bought more essential goods than they needed, disrupting the supply–demand cycle and leading to food shortages and price hikes (Boyaci-Gunduz et al., 2021). For this purpose, a resilient supply chain for the food sector was proposed to tackle the difficulties of varying supply–demand cycles (Singh et al., 2021). The resilience studied is defined as getting the process back to its original state after any distortion due to an undesirable event. The concept of a resilient supply chain has emerged to shield supply chains from swinging from chaotic to tranquil states and to ensure a continuous flow of business operations (Christopher & Peck, 2004). During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries stopped their regional and foreign trade for fear of spreading COVID-19, exposing the poor resilience and vulnerability of global and regional supply chains (SC) (Obayelu et al., 2020). For example, before the COVID-19 pandemic, China was the major exporter of face masks and medical equipment in the world.Footnote1. However, with the impact on global supply chains and the increase in domestic demand due to COVID-19, China reduced exportation of the required medical equipment, affecting the health sector of many countries, including Pakistan. Moreover, a study in the UK revealed that many construction projects were adversely affected due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with disruption in the supply chain as one of the important causes of Alsharef et al. (1559). Indeed, many European Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the manufacturing sector faced serious challenges in smoothly maintaining their supply–demand cycle during the COVID-19 period (Juergensen et al., 2020).

Conclusion and future research direction

     Over the past two years, the COVID-19 outbreak exposed the vulnerabilities associated with the current supply chain. This outbreak produced supply chain disruptions generating widespread impact on all economic activities across the globe. To stop the rapid propagation of the virus, all the countries adopted preventive measures, which disturbed all business operations. The impact of these preventive measures on the supply chain was especially critical in frugal economies like Pakistan. It is important, therefore, to develop an effective action plan to analyze the losses incurred by each economic sector due to such disruptions. Furthermore, to prioritize this action plan, a full-fledged methodology is essential to categorize the economic sectors based on the disruption losses. With this in mind, this study contributes to the literature by proposing a novel Fuzzy VIKORSort methodology that categorizes the economic sectors into certain predefined, ordered classes.

     The findings of this study are helpful in identifying the most vulnerable sectors in the face of unlikely events. For instance, the case discussed in this research revealed that the supply chain of the accommodation and food sector, along with the construction sector, is the most vulnerable sector in the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan. These results can help policymakers and government officials design a recovery plan for whenever such an unlikely event happens. For example, the authorities can adopt different measures such as well-maintained buffer stock, self-sufficient and minimally dependent on imports from other countries, which may help to shield the supply chain from disruption during global, destructive events. Additionally, well-trained marketing experts should be hired who can access and fulfill the demands of at-home customers and also update them about new offerings.