The role of energy is vital to human well-being and it is also crucial for economic development and energy fosters economic growth. Access to sufficient energy resources is a serious global concern, particularly in developing countries that do not have access to a secure supply of energy [1–3]. Worldwide primary energy demand is expected to rise by approximately 1.5–3 times by 2050 because of increasing energy demand in various regions of the world [6]. Demand for energy is increasing sharply in the developing countries as a result of rapid population growth, particularly in the continents of Africa and Asia and rapid economic development, particularly in China and India [3–7]. Population growth and rising the living standard of people are the key drivers behind increasing demand for energy [3,8]. It is estimated that global population will continue to increase by more than one billion persons and reach to 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050 and also increase to approximately 11.2 billion persons by 2100. World’s population is rising by 1.18% annually or almost an extra 83 million persons every year. The highest growth rates of population belong to Africa, with 2.55% [9], while all these communities require modern energy services in order to meet their basic needs such as lighting, cooking, space comfort, mobility, communication and to assist productive processes. Currently, conventional energy sources constitute more than 80% of worldwide energy consumption [10–13]. Most current types of energy production and utilization cause environmental issues at local, regional and global scales, reducing the quality of life and endangering the human health as well as the wellbeing of present and future generations of humankind. The energy production and utilization are responsible for 80% of carbon dioxide and two-thirds of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide [14]. In 2016, the annual mean atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration reached to 400 ppm (ppm), which is 40% higher than the pre-industrial time’s carbon dioxide level (280 ppm), while half of the global CO2 emissions have risen since the 1980s [15,16]. Historically, developed countries have produced the large majority of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while in recent years, the share of GHG emissions from developing countries have surpassed those of developed countries, and these shares have kept rising very rapidly [14,17]. For the first time in history, the aggregate energy-related CO2 emissions of developing countries surpassed those of developed and transition countries in 2008 [18]. CO2 emissions from China and India are rising rapidly, where energy production and consumption have increased significantly [1,19]. In recent years, developing countries have generally experienced a constant growth of CO2 emissions compared to developed countries of the world. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in Asia, Middle East, Africa and Pacific region increased very rapidly in recent years, as indicated in Fig. 1 [20].

مقاله سال 2016

A stylised analytical framework is used to show how the global carbon tax and the amount of untapped fossil fuel can be calculated from a simple rule given estimates of society’s rate of time impatience and intergenerational inequality aversion, the extraction cost technology, the rate of technical progress in renewable energy and the future trend rate of economic growth. The predictions of the simple framework are tested in a calibrated numerical and more complex version of the integrated assessment model (IAM). This IAM makes use of the Oxford carbon cycle of Allen et al. (2009), which differs from DICE, FUND and PAGE in that cumulative emissions are the key driving force of changes in temperature. We highlight the importance of the speed and direction of technological change for the energy transition and how time impatience, intergenerational inequality aversion and expected trend growth affect the time paths of the optimal global carbon tax and the optimal amount of fossil fuel reserves to leave untapped.We also compare these with the adverse global warming trajectories that occur if no policy actions are taken.

نمونه ترجمه

چکیده

یک چارچوب تحلیلی سبک دار برای نشان دادن چگونگی مالیات بر کربن جهانی، استفاده می شود و میزان سوخت فسیلی دستنخورده می تواند از یک قاعده ساده با توجه به برآوردهای نرخ impatience زمانی و نابرابری گریزی بین نسلی جامعه، هزینه تکنولوژی استخراج، میزان پیشرفت فنی در انرژی تجدیدپذیر و نرخ روند رشد اقتصادی آینده، محاسبه شود. پیش بینی های چارچوب ساده در یک نسخه پیچیده تر از مدل ارزیابی جامع (IAM) که از نظر عددی کالیبره شده است، بررسی می شوند. این IAM منجر به استفاده از چرخه کربن آکسفورد آلن و همکاران (2009) می شود، که با DICE، FUND و PAGE ، که در آنها انتشارهای تجمعی، نیروی محرک اصلی تغییرات دما هستند، تفاوت دارد. ما اهمیت سرعت و جهت تغییر تکنولوژی برای انتقال انرژی و چگونگی تأثیر impatience زمانی، نابرابری گریزی بین نسلی و روند رشد مورد انتظار، بر مسیرهای زمانی مالیات بر کربن جهانی بهینه و مقدار بهینه برای دست کشیدن از ذخایر سوخت فسیلی دستنخورده، را برجسته می کنیم. همچنین ما این موارد را با مسیرهای گرمایش جهانی نامطلوب که در صورت عدم اقدامات سیاسی، رخ می دهند، مقایسه می کنیم.