Highights

Abstract

Graphical abstract

Keywords

۱٫ Introduction

۲٫ Methodology

۲٫۱٫ The modeling algorithm of GM (1,1)

۲٫۲٫ The metabolic grey model

۲٫۳٫ The accuracy measurement

۳٫ Results and discussions

۳٫۱٫ The result of correlation test

۳٫۲٫ Prediction of ISWs generation and treatment

۴٫ Discussions

۵٫ Proposed framework for ISWs management

۶٫ Conclusion

Credit author statement

Declaration of competing interest

Acknowledgments

References

Abstract

Industrial solid wastes (ISWs) not only destroys the ecological environment, but also seriously affects human health, which is one of the main obstacles to sustainable development. Consequently, Effective management of ISWs is essential to support efforts to achieve cleaner production and ecological upgrading of industrial structure. In this study, metabolic grey model (MGM (1,1)) is adopted to forecasting the ISWs generation and treatment in China. Meanwhile, we develop an ISWs management system involving its safeguard mechanisms. Forecasting results show that China’s ISWs generated have been a slowly increasing trend from 2018 to 2025, which will be controlled between 389819 million tons and 488002 million tons, and the utilization, disposal and storage of ISWs have a significant upward trend. However, the ratio of ISWs utilized will eventually remain at around 50% in the future. According to the prediction results, the application of this ISWs management system can increase the efficiency of waste recycling and reuse, and make ISWs become renewable resources. Research results also illustrate that the safeguard mechanisms, including government policy tools, collaborative agents of the industryuniversity, green technology innovation, and circulation of green products, have ensured a highly efficient recycling and beneficial waste management to create more added values for the ISWs materials.

۱٫ Introduction

In recent years, environmental problems have become increasingly critical, as both developed and developing countries are facing serious waste discharge and disposal issues created by industrialization, rapid economic development and growing population, among others (Sandberg et al., 2019). Environmental protection and sustainable development have received more attention as a result of growing governments worldwide awareness of environmental pollution and resource shortage (Tang et al., 2016). To achieve that ambitious goal, countries around the world strengthen cooperation by formulating international regulations and laws, for example, the Kyoto Protocol is now replaced by the Paris Agreement, which is of great importance to not only address carbon emissions but also sustainable growth of the ecological economy (Ameyaw et al., 2019; Du et al., 2016). As a result, countries have designed their environmental policies according to their actual conditions, such as the plan of greenhouse gas emissions in Turkey and strict environmental regulations from China’s 13th five-year plan (Li et al., 2020; S¸ ahin, 2019).