مقاله انگلیسی رایگان در مورد جهات آینده در تحقیقات یکپارچه مالی بین المللی – الزویر 2018

This paper is the result of a crowdsourced effort to surface perspectives on the present and future direction of international finance. The authors are researchers in financial economics who attended the INFINITI 2017 conference in the University of Valencia in June 2017 and who participated in the crowdsourcing via the Overleaf platform. This paper highlights the actual state of scientific knowledge in a multitude of fields in finance and proposes different directions for future research.

1. The Present State of International Financial Integration

1.1. The effect of the Global Financial Crisis on International Financial Integration

The onset of the Global Financial Crisis and the subsequent response by monetary authorities, in particular in developed countries, has brought about several major changes to debt markets. First, there has been a significant drop in cross-border bank lending, in particular in the interbank lending (see for example James et al. (2014) and Batten et al. (2013)) from around USD 12 trillion at the peak in mid 2008 to around USD 7 trillion 5 years into the crisis. On the other hand, cross-border bank lending to nonfinancial corporations has been rather stable. Second, the majority of the decline has been related to the lending between developed economies, in particular within Europe. Contrary to that, cross-border lending to emerging economies has increased by almost 50 percent in the same period. Third, similar developments can be observed in terms of portfolio flows, where annual debt flows are at around half of what they used to be prior to the Global Financial Crisis. Again, there is a stark contrast between developed and emerging markets, where post crisis there has been a major increase in portfolio flows, both equity and debt, to emerging economies. These developments indicate an important and non-transitory post crisis shift in the financial integration ”channel” from an institutional to a more market-based one, as well as a looser integration amongst the largest developed economies and an increasing integration between developed and emerging markets. Finally, an important post crisis development relates to the composition and the ownership of debt assets. Flight to quality and massive interventions of monetary authorities raised the importance of government issued securities, in particular in more advanced economies. As shown by Lane and MilesiFerretti (2017), Euro area countries most severely affected by the Global Financial Crisis exhibit a declining share of foreign government debt owners, while the opposite holds for the large core Euro area countries. As expected, they also show that foreign share rises with the growth rate of the economy and the reduction of capital controls. The negative relation between foreign share and central bank holdings in the case of advanced economies suggests funnelling and concentration of major risks.