مقاله انگلیسی رایگان در مورد کنون بینی و پیش بینی پتانسیل انتشار محلی و بین المللی ۲۰۱۹-nCoV – الزویر ۲۰۲۰

elsevier

 

مشخصات مقاله
ترجمه عنوان مقاله کنون بینی و پیش بینی پتانسیل انتشار محلی و بین المللی ۲۰۱۹-nCoV آغاز شده در ووهان، چین: یک مطالعه مدلسازی
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study
انتشار مقاله سال ۲۰۲۰
تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی ۹ صفحه
هزینه دانلود مقاله انگلیسی رایگان میباشد.
پایگاه داده نشریه الزویر
نوع نگارش مقاله
مقاله پژوهشی (Research Article)
مقاله بیس این مقاله بیس نمیباشد
نمایه (index) Scopus – Master Journals List – JCR – MedLine – ISC
نوع مقاله ISI
فرمت مقاله انگلیسی  PDF
ایمپکت فاکتور(IF)
۴۳٫۳۷۷ در سال ۲۰۱۹
شاخص H_index ۷۰۰ در سال ۲۰۲۰
شاخص SJR ۱۵٫۸۷۱ در سال ۲۰۱۹
شناسه ISSN ۰۱۴۰-۶۷۳۶
شاخص Quartile (چارک) Q1 در سال ۲۰۱۹
مدل مفهومی ندارد
پرسشنامه ندارد
متغیر ندارد
رفرنس دارد
رشته های مرتبط پزشکی
گرایش های مرتبط ویروس شناسی پزشکی، پزشکی داخلی، اپیدمیولوژی، بیماری های عفونی و گرمسیری
نوع ارائه مقاله
ژورنال
مجله  نیشتر – The Lancet
دانشگاه  University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
شناسه دیجیتال – doi
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9
کد محصول E14556
وضعیت ترجمه مقاله  ترجمه آماده این مقاله موجود نمیباشد. میتوانید از طریق دکمه پایین سفارش دهید.
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فهرست مطالب مقاله:
Summary

Introduction

Methods

Results

Discussion

Data sharing

Supplementary Material

References

بخشی از متن مقاله:

Summary

Background Since Dec 31, 2019, the Chinese city of Wuhan has reported an outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Cases have been exported to other Chinese cities, as well as internationally, threatening to trigger a global outbreak. Here, we provide an estimate of the size of the epidemic in Wuhan on the basis of the number of cases exported from Wuhan to cities outside mainland China and forecast the extent of the domestic and global public health risks of epidemics, accounting for social and non-pharmaceutical prevention interventions.

Methods We used data from Dec 31, 2019, to Jan 28, 2020, on the number of cases exported from Wuhan internationally (known days of symptom onset from Dec 25, 2019, to Jan 19, 2020) to infer the number of infections in Wuhan from Dec 1, 2019, to Jan 25, 2020. Cases exported domestically were then estimated. We forecasted the national and global spread of 2019-nCoV, accounting for the effect of the metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan and surrounding cities, which began Jan 23–۲۴, ۲۰۲۰٫ We used data on monthly flight bookings from the Official Aviation Guide and data on human mobility across more than 300 prefecture-level cities in mainland China from the Tencent database. Data on confirmed cases were obtained from the reports published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Serial interval estimates were based on previous studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered metapopulation model was used to simulate the epidemics across all major cities in China. The basic reproductive number was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credibile interval (CrI).

Findings In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·۶۸ (۹۵% CrI 2·۴۷–۲·۸۶) and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–۱۳۰ ۳۳۰) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·۴ days (95% CrI 5·۸–۷·۱). We estimated that in the baseline scenario, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported 461 (95% CrI 227–۸۰۵), ۱۱۳ (۵۷–۱۹۳), ۹۸ (۴۹–۱۶۸), ۱۱۱ (۵۶–۱۹۱), and 80 (40–۱۳۹) infections from Wuhan, respectively. If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–۲ weeks.

Interpretation Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally

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