Highlights

Abstract

Keywords

۱٫ Introduction

۲٫ Data and methods

۳٫ Main results

۴٫ Discussion

۵٫ Concluding remarks

Credit author statement

Appendix A. Supplementary data

References

Vitae

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically impacted tourism and leisure activities worldwide, especially in the hospitality sector. This paper has a conceptual and empirical motivation based on two objectives. First, it identifies several of the primary factors behind the vulnerability of tourism to COVID-19 (tourism dependency, market structure, the supply of rural accommodation, and health incidence of the pandemic). Second, it constructs a vulnerability index to COVID-19 using Spain and its 50 provinces as case. The main results obtained indicate that tourism to the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, the provinces of the Mediterranean coast, and Madrid, in which the state capital is located, present higher vulnerability to COVID-19, yet with different underlying factors. Our methodology and results are of interest to policymakers in terms of the short- and medium-term strategic policies that can be employed to mitigate current and future shocks.

۱٫ Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has dealt a severe blow to global tourism and leisure sectors, including the hospitality subsector and its entire value chain. With the seclusion of the population since March (in Europe) and the closure of international borders in many countries, hotel and tourism demand approached zero between April and mid-June, beginning a process (perhaps temporary) of deglobalization (Niewiadomsky, 2020). The fall in the activity will probably be historic (higher than in the 2018 financial crisis) even in a fast recovery scenario around the last quarter of the year. The latest UNWTO forecasts (UNWTO, 2020a) point to various scenarios that see a decrease in international arrivals by 58% and 78%. The socio-economic consequences will be enormous, as tourism is a major economic sector providing livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people.2

Spain has a prominent place among the countries affected by the current pandemic. The latest estimates of the IMF indicate the GDP in Spain would contract by around 12.8% in 2020 (IMF, 2020). With a tourism sector accounting for around 12.3% of the Spanish GDP (and 12.7% of employment), a considerable part of the impact would be seen in the tourism sector. In fact, according to Exceltur (2020), half of the expected drop in the country’s annual GDP corresponds to tourism, that is, a contraction of almost 44,000 million in foreign currency compared to 2019. However, the impact within Spain is not expected to be evenly distributed. Thus, despite the substantial global and sectoral impact, the results in each territory will vary depending on various specific factors linked to demand (e.g., the weight of the domestic market), supply, or the mitigation and adaptation policies (the emergency response to COVID-19).