مقاله انگلیسی رایگان در مورد ارزیابی ریسک اعتباری در زنجیره تامین بر اساس سرایت – الزویر ۲۰۲۲

Abstract

     The evaluation of associated credit risk in supply chain is a difficult problem in the current credit risk management practice. Based on graph theory and fuzzy preference theory, we put forward a new evaluation method of associated credit risk in the supply chain. First, the credit risk of enterprises in supply chain are divided into “self-own credit risk” and “credit risk contagion”. Second, the indicator system of self-own credit risk evaluation of enterprises in the supply chain is designed, and the fuzzy comparative judgment matrix of self-own credit risk evaluation indicator is obtained by using fuzzy preference relation, and the evaluation basic model of “self-own credit risk” is established. On the basis, the evaluation derivative model of “credit risk contagion” is established. Furthermore, by integrating the two kinds of evaluation results, the credit risk of enterprises in supply chain is evaluated comprehensively, and the contagion effect of associated credit risk in supply chain based on trade credit risk contagion (TCRC) is revealed.

Introduction

     With the intensification of economic globalization, the supply chain gradually extends to the depth, showing the characteristics of cross-industry, cross-region, multi-member and multi-correlation. At present, the supply chain has evolved into a complex supply chain system composed of a number of interassociated enterprises[1]. The correlation relationship in the supply chain leads to the contagion effect among the credit risks of enterprises, and forms the contagion network of the associated credit risk in the supply chain[2]. The associated credit risk in the supply chain presents a strong contagion effect, which directly endangers the commercial banks that provide loans to the enterprises in the supply chain[3]. Therefore, when commercial banks evaluate the credit risk of enterprises in the supply chain, they must focus on the evaluation of the contagion effect of associated credit risk in the supply chain. Under the framework of traditional credit risk evaluation of commercial banks, it is generally believed that the credit status of enterprises changes independently. Therefore, when traditional credit risk assessment methods are used to evaluate enterprises in the supply chain, they are often isolated from the supply chain environment and only evaluate the credit status of a single enterprise without involving the interaction of credit risk among enterprises in the supply chain, resulting in inaccurate evaluation results. It is difficult to provide scientific theoretical basis for the credit decision and risk control of commercial banks.

Conclusions

     Traditional credit risk evaluation methods of commercial banks fail to consider the contagion of credit risks among associated enterprises, leading to unscientific credit risk evaluation results of loan applying enterprises, unreasonable credit decision-making and risk control measures, and thus the credit risks faced by commercial banks themselves are increased accordingly. This paper divides the credit risks of enterprises in the supply chain into “self-own credit risk” and “credit risk contagion”. Based on the risk contagion network formed by trade credit, this paper constructs the evaluation basic model of “self-own credit risk” and the evaluation derivative model of “credit risk contagion” in the supply chain, and combines the two evaluation models to comprehensively evaluate the credit risk of enterprises in the risk contagion network of the supply chain. The evaluation method proposed in this paper not only effectively evaluates the credit risk of the enterprises in the supply chain risk contagion network, reveals the contagion effect of the associated credit risk in the supply chain, but also helps the commercial banks reduce or even eliminate the negative impact of the associated credit risk in the supply chain, and reduces the potential loss of the commercial banks.