Abstract

Food security is pivotal for national sustainable development. This study utilizes panel data from 31 Chinese provinces spanning from 1990 to 2021 to construct distinct indicator systems for urban–rural integration and food security. The entropy method is employed to assess levels of urban–rural integration and food security, with their inter-relationship examined through a fixed-effects model. Additionally, this study conducts rigorous robustness and endogeneity tests, alongside comprehensive heterogeneity analyses across various dimensions and regions. The findings underscore the significant role of urban–rural integration in enhancing food security, particularly within spatial, social, and economic dimensions, albeit encountering challenges in ecological integration. Moreover, the impact of urban–rural integration on food security manifests differently across diverse food-producing regions, exhibiting notable advantages in primary production and distribution hubs while being negligible in balanced regions. These results accentuate the critical necessity for refining urban–rural integration strategies to bolster food security. Consequently, in formulating agricultural regional policies, careful consideration of resource allocation and the developmental stages of each region is imperative to ensure food security and promote sustainable agricultural practices.

Introduction

Food security is fundamentally linked to human well-being, acting as a crucial safeguard for national economic development and playing a direct role in ensuring peace and stability [1]. As we look to the future, the imperative of maintaining food security becomes a global priority, essential for achieving various Millennium Development Goals [2,3]. According to the “۲۰۱۸ World Urbanization Prospects” report, by the mid-21st century, approximately two-thirds (68%) of the world’s population will reside in urban areas, with a projected increase of 2.5 billion in the global urban population by 2050, nearly 90% of which will occur in the developing regions of Asia and Africa [4]. This urban concentration, along with ongoing expansion, poses significant challenges, including a shrinking rural workforce, diminishing arable land, environmental degradation, and compromised food security. The rapid pace of urbanization challenges the development of sustainable production and existing consumption models, necessitating targeted initiatives to manage the increased food consumption of urban populations; enhance urban dietary patterns in response to shifts in food demand, primarily through the efficient reallocation of agricultural resources; and maintain essential interactions between urban and rural areas in developing countries.

The realm of food security, marked by inherent complexity and dynamism, is influenced by a confluence of factors, including global pandemics, geopolitical strife, and climatic volatility, which have introduced challenges on an unprecedented scale [5,6]. In China, significant advances have been achieved in food production, supply chains, and agricultural economic development. Notably, China currently supports 22% of the global populace whilst possessing only 7% of the planet’s arable land [7]. For fourteen consecutive years, China’s per capita food availability has exceeded the globally recognized safety threshold of 400 kg per year, marking a crucial milestone in achieving grain self-sufficiency and the absolute security of staple foods. Despite these advances, a substantial demographic base continues to drive significant food demand, further intensified through the processes of urbanization and rapid economic growth, thereby increasing food requirements across both urban and rural sectors. Enhancements in urban–rural dynamics have facilitated resource distribution; however, disparities in resource allocation continue to pose risks to food security. The promotion of urban–rural integration strategies aims to optimize resource allocation efficiency, thereby reinforcing food security paradigms. The advances in agricultural technology have significantly increased food production levels; however, challenges such as land scarcity, workforce attrition, and an aging demographic persist [8,9]. Ensuring a stable and sufficient food supply remains critical [10]. Addressing the basic nutritional needs of the population will underpin food security. The historical data from the years 1949 to 2021 demonstrate the effective maintenance of per capita food consumption for urban and rural residents, with the food supply–demand ratio rising from 1.05 in 1949 to 3.68. As shown in Figure 1, as the trajectory of per capita food production approaches its peak, showing only a marginal decline, and with the diversification of the food supply leading to a reduction in per capita food demand, China is compelled to recalibrate its food security strategy to address the emerging challenges and shifts in paradigms.

Results

۴٫۱٫ Analysis of Urban–Rural Integration and Food Security Measurement Results
۴٫۱٫۱٫ Analysis of Food Security Measurement Results
Figure 3 illustrates the levels of food security across China’s 31 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) from 1990 to 2021, highlighting a consistent enhancement in food security across the provinces. Key grain-producing regions such as Heilongjiang, Henan, and Shandong remain pivotal in ensuring food security despite approaching saturation in their capacity. Leveraging their abundant resources, these primary production areas have efficiently supplied food to major consumption centers, fostering a synergy of regional strengths. Concurrently with economic progress, the focal point of food security is gradually shifting northward, with Xinjiang, Shanxi, and Qinghai emerging as critical hubs for food reserve capabilities, demonstrating significant potential. Although primary consumption areas display low self-sufficiency, their economic influence and robust infrastructure support reliance on primary production regions and trade to ensure food security. Advancements in transportation, technology, and digitalization are steadily enhancing food supply capabilities, underscoring the importance of maintaining regional food security equilibrium as a fundamental aspect of revising the national food security strategy.