مقاله انگلیسی رایگان در مورد بازار بیت کوین و فعالیت رسانه های اجتماعی – MDPI 2024

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between Bitcoin market dynamics and user activity on the r/cryptocurrency subreddit. The purpose of this research is to understand how social media activity correlates with Bitcoin price and trading volume, and to explore the sentiment and topical focus of Reddit discussions. We collected data on Bitcoin’s closing price and trading volume from January 2021 to December 2022, alongside the most popular posts and comments from the subreddit during the same period. Our analysis revealed significant correlations between Bitcoin market metrics and Reddit activity, with user discussions often reacting to market changes. Additionally, user activity on Reddit may indirectly influence the market through broader social and economic factors. Sentiment analysis showed that positive comments were more prevalent during price surges, while negative comments increased during downturns. Topic modeling identified four main discussion themes, which varied over time, particularly during market dips. These findings suggest that social media activity on Reddit can provide valuable insights into market trends and investor sentiment. Overall, our study highlights the influential role of online communities in shaping cryptocurrency market dynamics, offering potential tools for market prediction and regulation.

Introduction

The rapid growth and adoption of cryptocurrencies have attracted significant attention from investors, researchers, and policymakers. Among these digital assets, Bitcoin (BTC) [1] stands out due to its market dominance and influence on the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. Understanding the factors that drive Bitcoin’s price and trading volume is crucial for stakeholders across various sectors. One such factor is the sentiment and activity within online communities, where discussions and opinions about cryptocurrencies are actively shared.

Social media platforms and online forums play a vital role in shaping the market dynamics of cryptocurrencies [2]. These platforms provide real-time information, opinions, and sentiment that can influence investor behavior and market trends. Several studies have explored the relationship between social media activity and cryptocurrency markets, highlighting the significance of sentiment analysis and user engagement in predicting price movements and trading volumes.

While previous studies have examined the relationship between social media sentiment and cryptocurrency markets, our research distinguishes itself by focusing on the specific community of r/cryptocurrency on Reddit. We leverage a combination of sentiment analysis and topic modeling on a comprehensive dataset of posts and comments, providing a detailed view of how online discussions evolve and correlate with Bitcoin market movements. By examining both sentiment and thematic content over time, our study offers nuanced insights into the interplay between social media activity and cryptocurrency market dynamics.

Results

4. Results
4.1. Bitcoin Market Data
Figure 1 illustrates the closing price of Bitcoin (BTC) over a two-year period, from 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2022. The data reveal significant volatility, characteristic of the cryptocurrency market. Notably, BTC reached an all-time high in November 2021, approaching USD 68,000, before undergoing a substantial correction throughout 2022. This decline reflects broader market trends, including macroeconomic factors and changes in investor sentiment. The closing price provides a critical foundation for understanding market dynamics and investor behavior during this period.