مقاله سال ۲۰۱۶

With the growing importance and pervasiveness of Information and Communications Technology (ICT), there has been increasing awareness of the importance of standards for ICT innovation since the last decades of the 20th century. The proliferation of various technical components that need to be interconnected within larger systems presents associated standardisation challenges, requiring more anticipatory standards to achieve interoperability among networked products (Blumenthal and Clark, 1995; David and Shurmer, 1996; Jakobs et al., 2011). Many studies have been carried out, exploring important roles of standards in supporting technological innovation, including: defining and establishing common foundations upon which innovative technology may be developed; codifying and diffusing state-of-the-art technology and practices; and allowing interoperability across products and systems (Allen and Sriram, 2000; Tassey, 2000; Blind and Gauch, 2009; Swann, 2010; NSTC, 2011). While timely and well-designed standards can support innovation, premature or inappropriate standards may have detrimental impacts on innovation, including: imposing constraints by increasing irreversibility and decreasing flexibility, locking in inferior standards or technologies (e.g., the QWERTY keyboard), and risking monopolies, especially in network industries where standards can become technological bottlenecks (David, 1985; Shurmer and Lea, 1995; Hanseth et al., 1996; Swann, 2000; Langlois, 2001; CIE, 2006).

Because of this dual nature of standards, strategic approaches for timely and appropriate standardisation are critical for innovation systems. However, this is especially challenging for complex systems integrating different technologies and subsystems, as they require not only a large infrastructure of interconnection standards, but also input from a variety of stakeholders from different organisations and disciplines (Blumenthal and Clark, 1995; NPE, 2012; Tassey, 2014). These systems are also continuously evolving, based on new R&D-driven innovations in individual components and technologies. Furthermore, the pervasiveness of smart ICT-based systems in areas of critical national and societal importance – including energy (e.g., smart grids), transportation (e.g., smart mobility), and industrial productivity and competitiveness (e.g., smart manufacturing) – results in an even greater variety of stakeholder interests, regulatory issues, and policy considerations. Consequently, a more systematic and anticipatory approach to strategic standardisation is called for, particularly in complex heterogeneous areas of ‘smart systems1 ’ where ICT plays a critical role.

The need for more systematic foresight approaches to standardisation has been widely recognised among policymakers and standards organisations (EXPRESS, 2010; NSTC, 2011; European Commission, 2011). In order to address such challenges, there have been a number of future-oriented analyses for effective anticipation and management of standards. Roadmapping is one of the most widely used tools for such foresight exercises, supporting systematic planning and development of standardisation strategies. Many countries have developed standardisation roadmaps in various areas related to smart systems, as there are significant challenges and opportunities associated with standardisation in these complex areas (e.g., NIST, 2010a; Hogan et al., 2011; NPE, 2012; DKE, 2012, 2014; TTA, 2013; Scapolo et al., 2014). Despite its wide adoption, there remain considerable challenges for policymakers and standards organisations in terms of how to structure and manage roadmapping for strategic foresight analyses of standardisation. Although recent work by Featherston et al. (2016) presents a framework to support the anticipation of standards with careful characterisation of various technologies and innovation activities relevant to standardisation, more research is needed to develop a systematic process of organising and managing roadmapping exercises, which effectively engages and coordinates between various stakeholders and Standards Development Organisations (SDOs).