۱- Introduction

۲- The model

۳- The economy’s general equilibrium

۴- The transition

۵- Conclusion

References

Abstract

To make progress toward a comprehensive theory of sustainable growth, this paper integrates fertility choice and exhaustible resource dynamics in a tractable model of endogenous technological change. The model identifies conditions under which the interdependence of population, resources and technology produces a transition that consists of three phases: (1) an initial phase where agents exploit exhaustible natural resources to support population growth; (2) an intermediate phase where agents turn on the Schumpeterian engine of endogenous innovation in response to population-led market expansion; (3) a terminal phase where knowledge accumulation becomes the sole engine of growth. The last phase is crucial: not only economic growth no longer requires growth of physical inputs, but technological change also compensates for the exhaustion of the natural resource.

Introduction

One of the liveliest debates of our times concerns the sustainability of living standards in a world of limited, possibly vanishing, natural resources. To contribute to the debate, this paper integrates fertility choice and exhaustible resource dynamics in a tractable model of endogenous technological change. It then shows that under the right conditions the interdependence of population, resources and technology produces a transition from unsustainable resource-based growth to sustainable knowledge-based growth that consists of three phases: 1. an initial phase where agents build up the economy by exploiting exhaustible natural resources to support population growth; 2. an intermediate phase where agents turn on the Schumpeterian engine of endoge nous innovation in response to population-led market expansion; 3. a terminal phase where economic growth becomes fully driven by knowledge accu mulation and no longer requires growth of physical inputs.