مقاله انگلیسی رایگان در مورد چشم انداز اجتماعی پر انرژی متعادل بشریت محدوده سیاره زمین

مقاله سال ۲۰۱۶

Further development of human welfare is at crossroads. WWF (2014) annually reports that for several decades humankind has needed the capacity of more than one planet Earth, based on the fundamental findings of Wackernagel et al. (1999, 2002). About 50% is due to resource exploitation and emissions of the energy system. There are limits to growth on our planet (Meadows et al., 1972), but humankind does not seem to keep within planetary boundaries as defined by Rockström and Klumm (2012) to show a “safe operating space for humanity”. Diminishing energy fuels (EWG, 2013) have caused in the past and will cause in the future dramatic economic, social, political and military shocks. Poverty in the world needs to be tackled not only for humanistic reasons but also for rebalancing the births and deaths annually in order to stabilize the world population and keeping global warming within the 2 °C target on the mid- to long-term (Rogelj et al., 2013). Kaya and Yokobori (1998) concluded that the world population is the key driver for global resource demand of humankind, confirmed by Raupach et al. (2007). The experience of the last decades has shown that growing standards of living reduce population growth most effectively (UN, 2013). However, this goes hand in hand with a fast increase in energy demand (Breyer, 2012). Kapitza (2006, 172) points out that energy is the most significant factor in growth, since it is the main resource for development, determining besides industry food production, transport, housing and communications. Like the population, energy production is additive and readily quantifiable.

There is a sense of urgency to tackle the wicked problem of growing unsustainability and breaking the planetary boundaries. Based on the interlinkages of climate change, energy resources and economic growth Dunlop (2011) argues for an immediate need for global risk management. Kanninen (2013) claims the world needs a survival agenda. Futures research should focus its major efforts on addressing it. From the framework of 15 Global Challenges by the Millennium Project, five challenges are directly dealing with this issue (sustainable development and climate change, energy, science and technology, clean water, population and resources) and the rest 10 challenges are indirectly concerned as well (Glenn et al., 2015).

To simultaneously supply for increasing energy demand and mitigate CO2 emissions a new energy system is needed. In the NeoCarbon Energy system, being studied and developed in the NeoCarbon Energy project,1 energy is produced mainly by wind energy and solar photovoltaics, used directly whenever possible, and stored in synthetic methane, other synthetic hydrocarbons or batteries. Carbon dioxide and hydrogen can also be used as feedstock for chemicals and materials.