مقاله انگلیسی رایگان در مورد  آینده نگری تکنولوژی در چین – الزویر 2016

Abstract

Technology foresight has received increasing attention in China among academic scholars and policy makers. This paper, based on an analysis of global technology foresight features, systematically summarizes and discusses academic studies, governmental practices, and policy applications regarding technology foresight in China, associated with bibliometrics, expert interviews, and desk research methods. The evidence of both theoretical studies and practical activities indicates that technology foresight has rapidly developed in China. This development process can be divided into three periods: the exploration, rapid development, and maturation periods. Technology foresight activities in China enable stakeholders to consult with each other, which leads to a technology foresight culture. Further, many problems in developing and planning with science, technology, and innovation can be solved when comprehensive approaches are adopted to conduct technology foresight activities, including large-scale Delphi survey, scenario analysis, technology roadmap, and bibliometrics, among others. Currently, technology foresight is not only an essential instrument, but is also widely applied in China to develop planning and policies regarding science, technology, and innovation activities. Alternatively, the methodology of Chinese technology foresight and its application to science and technology planning must further improve.

Introduction

Motivators for science and technology progress are increasingly complicated. This trend has changed, from “internal factors of the technology system determine the trajectory of technology development” to “interaction between technology and social and economic development determines the trajectory of technology development,” which then evolved to “the technology trajectory has multiple possibilities and the future trajectory can be selected through present policies” (Research Group of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China, 2006). At the same time, confronted with increasing global economic competition, policy-makers and scientists are grappling with the problem of how to select the most promising research areas and emerging technologies on which to target resources and, hence, derive the greatest benefits (Martin, 1995). To develop oriented-future policies in this situation of complex driving forces, technology foresight (TF) has been considered an appropriate method to manage science, technology and innovation activities (Georghiou, 2013). The term “Technology Foresight” took off in the 1990s, as European, and then other, countries sought new policy tools to deal with problems in their science, technology and innovation systems (Miles, 2010). Technology foresight activities and studies effectively assist in planning and managing uncertainty levels, which have received more and more attention in emerging countries.