مقاله انگلیسی رایگان در مورد شبیه سازی زنجیره تامین زمین سبز بر اساس پویایی سیستم – الزویر 2018

The dependence of human beings on natural resources is long-standing, and land resource is a crucial part of these natural resources. In recent years, land pollution and resource shortage have severely affected the normal lives of individuals. There is a growing appreciation of the need for studying the green supply chain of land. In this study, the land green supply chain is divided into subsystems of technology (T), energy (E), environment (E), and economy (E), which construct TEEE dynamic model. Based on the model, we simulate the develop trend of technology, energy, environment, and economy in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2020. Moreover, we find out optimal polices to realize economic and environmental objectives of 2020 of Shandong Province, and get the optimization scheme for environmental policy as below: water quota for farmland irrigation is 2780 m2 per hectare, quota for urban water consumption is 33 m3 per capita per year, quota for industrial water consumption is 8 m3 per CNY10000 and unqualified rate of industrial waste water is 1%. If regulating and controlling as per such objectives, total industrial population will be reduced to 99.87 million, total industrial output value will reach CNY 44.68 trillion and environmental pollution degree will get down to 1.153.

Introduction

As an important step toward overall modernization of China, urbanization, together with industrialization, informalization, and agricultural modernization, has been considered as the carrier for building a comprehensively well-off society. The development of urbanization is inseparable from proper utilization of land resources. In recent years, with the development of China’s economy and the increasing population, the frequency of land use and the scope of use have also increased. Since 2011, the urban population surpassed the rural population for the first time; by the end of 2014, the urban population was 749 million, which reached 54.77% of the total population of China, which also caused water shortages, air pollution, traffic congestion, and an insufficient ecological capacity. Currently, the most pressing issue for China is the wastage of resources that has resulted due to low land resource utilization efficiency, unbalanced regional development, and the low level of attraction of surplus rural labor force. Therefore, the need for the green supply chain of land is gaining attention. With the acceleration of urbanization, land use has undergone tremendous changes. The real estate industry has developed rapidly. Land prices have continued to rise, and the growth rate of urban land use has surpassed the urban non-agricultural population growth rate. Reckless land disposal in development and construction and the serious problem of vacant expropriated land have left a large quantity of unused land. Land utilization in rural areas also has many problems that outstrip the national average. Meanwhile, land reform policies have also triggered serious problems such as low urban land utilization efficiency, accrual of land, and loss of agricultural acreage. If we take urbanization as an important symbol of economic development, then the emergence of these major urban diseases will not only make people’s quality of life unimproved, but the development of the urban economy will also be limited by the environment and resources, and even need to be consumed. Partial economic growth needs to be achieved to maintain the current environment. Representatives at sessions of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese Political Consultative Conference have pointed out that urban land utilization can be reduced to compel cities to maintain their population limit to alleviate urban stresses. These findings imply that China is experiencing backward economic development and wastage of resources. The low efficiency of land resource utilization does not only exist in cities but also in rural areas.