مقاله انگلیسی رایگان در مورد تاثیرات تنظیم زلزله در ساختمان های تجاری – اسپرینگر 2018

Introduction

We examine the effects of the devastating Christchurch (Canterbury, New Zealand) earthquakes on commercial building prices in an earthquake-prone (but directly unaffected) city, Wellington. Specifically, we examine the effects of the Christchurch earthquakes on Wellington commercial building prices in the presence of regulations and building codes that resulted in some buildings being officially declared as earthquake-prone. Several papers have examined the impacts of natural and industrial disasters on housing markets, both in areas affected by the disaster and in unaffected areas.1 In addition, studies have examined the effects of floods on agricultural properties and houses in flood-prone areas.2 However, there is little or no analysis of the effects of a major natural disaster on the market for commercial buildings, especially those that were not directly affected by the disaster. Our paper, which utilises official records on earthquake-prone buildings coupled with market sales price data, provides the first such study. Our major focus is to examine the post-earthquake price impacts on commercial buildings of a public policy that declares certain buildings to be earthquake-prone, with accompanying requirements on owners to raise the structural integrity of the building. By utilising the timing of official earthquake-prone notices, we can distinguish whether the policy of declaring a building earthquake-prone has a price effect relative to buildings that are not yet declared earthquake-prone but which subsequently receive that status. An earthquake of magnitude 7.1 on the Richter scale struck Christchurch on 4 September 2010. An even more damaging aftershock struck the central city on 22 February 2011 killing 185 people. Subsequent aftershocks caused further damage over the next year. The city’s central business district (CBD) remained cordoned off for more than 2 years and approximately 16,000 properties were severely damaged. The Treasury (2013) estimated that total investment associated with the city’s rebuild would amount to around 20% of the country’s GDP. The earthquakes badly damaged many older brick and mortar buildings, many of which were commercial buildings in the CBD. Risk of collapse or severe damage amongst brick and unreinforced masonry buildings in earthquakes had been shown repeatedly in earlier New Zealand earthquakes including the 1848 Marlborough earthquake and the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake, both of which devastated the fledgling city of Wellington. Further major earthquakes within the country (especially the 1929 Murchison earthquake, the 1931 Napier earthquake and the 1942 Wairarapa earthquakes, all of which were between 7.2 and 8.2 on the Richter scale) again exposed the risk posed by brick and unreinforced masonry buildings. Nevertheless, further such buildings were built throughout New Zealand, even in Wellington, a city which had been established both scientifically and through experience as an earthquake-prone city (Thornton 2010). Consistent with the cited literature, we hypothesise that a major earthquake, such as in Christchurch, caused a re-evaluation of the danger posed by earthquake-prone buildings elsewhere, especially in an earthquake-prone city such as Wellington. Given the devastation to commercial buildings in Christchurch, we hypothesise that this re-evaluation will have impacted on prices of earthquake-prone commercial buildings. We test whether public policy intervention by local and central government had an additional effect on commercial building prices through formal declaration of buildings that fell below a certain safety threshold as BEarthquake-Prone Buildings.

مقدمه

ما اثرات زمین لرزه های ویرانگر کرایست چرچ (کانتربوری، نیوزیلند) را بر قیمت ساختمان های تجاری در یک شهر زلزله خیز ( که مستقیما تحت تاثیر زلزله قرار ندارد) به نام ولینگتون بررسی می کنیم. ما به طور خاص، اثرات زمین لرزه های کرایست چرچ بر قیمت ساختمان های تجاری ولینگتون را در حضور مقررات و قوانین ساخت که بعضی از ساختمان ها را به عنوان ساختمان های مستعد زلزله به رسمیت می شناسد، بررسی می کنیم. چندین مقاله تاثیرات بلایای طبیعی و صنعتی را بر بازار مسکن چه در مناطقی که تحت تاثیر فاجعه قرار دارند و چه در مناطق بدون تاثیر آن ، بررسی کرده اند . علاوه بر این مطالعاتی در خصوص تاثیرات سیلاب بر خواص کشاورزی و خانه ها در مناطق مستعد سیل انجام شده است. با این وجود، تحلیل و بررسی بسیار کمی در مورد اثرات یک فاجعه بزرگ طبیعی بر بازار ساختمان های تجاری به خصوص ساختمان هایی که به طور مستقیم تحت تاثیر فاجعه قرار نگرفته اند، انجام گرفته است ( و یا تقریبا هیچگونه بررسی صورت نگرفته است). مقاله ما با استفاده از پرونده های رسمی برای ساختمان های مستعد زلزله ای که دارای اطلاعات قیمت فروش در بازار هستند، اولین مطالعه را در این زمینه فراهم آورده است.