Highlights

Abstract

Keywords

۱٫ Introduction

۲٫ Learning from the ghosts of agriculture past

۳٫ From the past into our agriculture present

۴٫ Anticipating our agricultural future

۵٫ Conclusion

Declaration of competing interest

Acknowledgements

References

Abstract

Strategic foresight is systematic means to explore plausible futures. In the agricultural context, strategic foresight allows decision-makers to explore how alternative investments in agriculture research may function given anticipated futures associated with a variety of drivers ranging from climate change to increasing wealth to a changing policy environment. This paper presents an overview and context for six recently published articles in Global Food Security that comprise a virtual special issue on agricultural futures. Each of the papers takes a distinct perspective and addresses key issues from how past trends drive future outcomes to specific commodity systems to issues around employment and rural transformation. While each of the included papers stands on its own merits, the collection presents a unique opportunity to unpack the role of investment in agriculture research from a variety of perspectives. Collectively, the special issue offers insights to support current and future investment planning to better target desired outcomes associated with long-term agricultural research.

۱٫ Introduction

Since agriculture first appeared in the Fertile Crescent some 10,000 years ago, humankind has been working to make it better. Early farmers quickly learned that different crops had different properties, and that a variety of tools could help improve agricultural outcomes under different conditions. In the present day, our interconnected agricultural systems are still the foundation of the global food system, and the latest technologies from improved crop varieties to digital agro-advisory systems provide modern farmers with a range of solutions that would have been unimaginable even a few decades ago.

Whether talking about an ancestral farmer in the Fertile Crescent, a large-scale farmer in North America, or a small-scale farmer in sub-Saharan Africa, farmers have long recognized the need to develop their craft on an ongoing basis. Agricultural research and innovation, both informal and formal, have arguably been the “secret sauce” that has allowed economies to diversify, grow, and sustain the Earth’s population over decades and even millennia.