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Abstract

This article is devoted to assessing structural changes in the transport support of foreign trade in the direction of Europe-Asia as a result of the active strengthening of the positions of Asian countries in world markets. The relevance of the topic is determined by the following key trends that affect the choice of assessment methods. A reflection of economic globalization as a characteristic of the development of the world economic system is the rate of change in international trade and global gross product. Over the past few years, international trade in terms of speed not only equals the rate of change in the world product, but also begins to yield to it. Against this background, developing countries are expanding and strengthening their positions, especially the developing countries of Asia. The expansion and deepening of export and import flows of Asian countries intensifies the load on the transport support of foreign trade. The traditional way of cargo transportation in the direction of Europe-Asia is the use of maritime transport. Recently, however, an increasing number of countries have raised the need for the development of railway routes, which can significantly reduce transportation time. In this regard, it is of interest not just to identify current trends and long-term trends in the Europe-Asia system of transport support for international trade, but to calculate the structural changes that have occurred. The results of this assessment, which allow to qualitatively characterize the transport support of Europe-Asia trade, are presented in this article.

۱٫ Introduction

The development of the world economic system, of course, manifested itself and is manifested through economic globalization, a characteristic feature of which is the rate of change in the volume of international trade relative to the dynamics of real GDP (table 1). Lead coefficient in 2001-2010 as an indicator of this ratio was at the level of 1.3, in 2011 it was equal to 1.6, and then it was able to get as close as possible only according to the results of 2017, amounting to 1.5. A decrease in this coefficient and even finding it at a level less than unity, which indicates the superiority of real world GDP growth over international trade, confirms the inflated nature of international trade indicators (according to International Trade and Market Access Data). The forecast for 2020 was made before the COVID-19 pandemic.