مقاله انگلیسی رایگان در مورد فعالیت اقتصادی و بازار اعتباری رابط ها – وایلی 2017

The Great Financial crisis of 2008 has witnessed an increasing degree of interaction between the real economy and financial markets, in particular with the banking sector (see among others, D’Apice and Ferri, 2010; Claessens et al., 2010; Stiglitz, 2010; Fiordelisi et al., 2014). Over the years, in fact, deregulation led to significant changes on the financial system, allowing financial companies and other intermediaries to expand the aims of their businesses and, at the same time, to explore new profitable opportunities. As a result, the financial sector has rapidly grown in size and in terms of its contribution to overall economic activity. By contrast, such deregulated environments can also be more volatile, contributing to the build-up of financial imbalances, which, in turn, can easily generate macroeconomic instability. Unsurprisingly, the presence of factors that have increased the vulnerability of the macro-economy to financial system stress pushed several governments and central banks to foster the development of measures aimed at re-gaining financial stability for overall macroeconomic performance. Understanding the transmission channels that exist between the real and financial sectors of the economy is of primary importance when assessing financial stability, especially when the goal of policy makers and regulators is to determine the overall impact of development and policy actions on the state of the economy. In fact, on the one hand, the state of the business cycle affects incomes, profits and, thus, by extension, the balance sheets and the creditworthiness of various economic players. On the other hand, financial conditions of banks and other intermediaries have a clear influence on the overall economy. The purpose of this paper is precisely to investigate the linkages between the real economy and credit markets in the Italian economy, using macro data. More specifically, we study how the business cycle influences credit markets and in particular the risk of the banks’ loan portfolio (i.e. the real effect) and, in turn, how credit shocks affect the real economy (i.e. the credit-supply effect). By estimating a linear vector autoregression model (VAR), we find evidence of both real and credit supply effects in Italy. In particular, with regard to the real effect, we find that the sensitivity of banksloans’ default rate to the business cycle is conveyed primarily by the creditworthiness of large firms, whereas, on the contrary, the sensitivity of the households-based loans’ default rate to the business cycle is not statistically significant. Moreover, to further analyse the main sources of linkages between the real economy and credit markets, we consider two different types of credit supply shocks. More precisely, using data from the Bank Lending Survey provided by the ECB, we distinguish the supply shifts originated by factors inside the banking sector (i.e. the bank lending channel), from those originated by factors outside the banking sector (i.e. the borrower’s balancesheet channel). In this regard, we find that both types of credit linkages generate a significant impact on economic growth, exhibiting a quite similar magnitude. However, when considering credit to firms, credit supply shocks originated by factors inside the banking sector have greater effects on the economic growth than shocks determined by outside factors. On the contrary, when considering credit to households, we find stronger effects in the case of shocks driven by outside factors.