۱- Introduction

۲- Methodology

۳- Simulation results

۴- Potential to achieve Ethiopia’s sustainable energy development goals

۵- Conclusions

References

Abstract

The energy sector of Ethiopia continues to largely rely on traditional biomass energy due to limited access to modern energy sources to meet growing demand. Long-term energy demand forecasting is essential to guide the country’s plans to expand the energy supply system. This study provides a general overview of Ethiopia’s current energy demand and forecasts sector-wise energy demand out to 2030 for alternative policy scenarios using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model. The reference scenario assumes a continuation of recent energy consumption trends and takes account of current energy and economic dynamics. Three alternative scenarios on improved cookstoves, efficient lighting, and universal electrification scenario were identified as key priorities of the government of Ethiopia and modeled. Results from the model can assist energy planners in ensuring that the country’s capacity for supply meets projected growth in demand for energy. They also shed light on the tradeoffs implicit in alternative policy priorities and investments in terms of economic development and environmental sustainability. Most importantly, the results suggest that alternative investments can conserve energy, improve environmental sustainability, enhance energy equity and improve the country’s development indicators.

Introduction

Having access to modern energy sources is essential for economic development and livelihood improvement [1]. Access to modern energy supports both income generation activities and the national development agenda through improving education, reducing indoor air pollution, and ensuring environment sustainability. The Ethiopian energy sector faces the dual challenges of limited access to modern energy and heavy reliance on traditional biomass energy sources to meet growing demand. While Ethiopia has seen dramatic economic growth in recent years, sustaining this growth into the future will require dramatic expansion of energy supply. Power generation for the electric grid in Ethiopia currently depends almost entirely on hydropower. At the same time, in 2012, only about 23% of the total population was connected to the national grid [3]. There are stark differences in the rate of electricity access in urban and rural areasdin urban areas 87% of the population has access to electricity [2], while in rural areas electricity access remains extremely low at about 5% [3]. Eighty-three percent of the population resides in rural areas, largely relying on traditional biomass energy sources for cooking and heating. Electricity is mostly used by urban households and small industry [4]. Per capita electricity consumption was 23 kWh in 2000 [3] and increased to about 41 kWh by 2008 and 70 kWh by 2014 [2]. This level is far below the average level of per capita energy consumption across all African countries (500 kWh per capita) [5]. The primary source of energy in Ethiopia is biomass, which accounts for 91% of energy consumed [4]. Petroleum supplies about 7% of total primary energy and electricity accounts for only 2% of total energy use. Biomass consumption accounts for over 98% of total supply in the residential sector. The World Development Indicators [3] and many other studies [6e8] show that the national energy balance is dominated by a heavy reliance on firewood, crop residues, and dung. Due to the dependence on biomass for cooking, CO2 emissions in Ethiopia have increased from 5.1 million tons in 2005 to 6.5 million tons in 2010.