The widespread adoption of the internet as retail channel is impacting a range of stakeholders. Retailers are expected to sell online, logistics operators are required to reconfigure their supply chain and public authorities try to keep local retail competitive while simultaneously attempt to manage the increase in freight transport. Within this context, a growing body of research is studying the socio-economic profile of the online shopper and the spatial variation in the demand for B2C goods. Yet, as can be expected for a relatively new evolution, little consensus exist. Therefore, in this paper, with data from the national retail federation on online shopping behaviour, we add to this growing field by first analysing the relation between socio-economic characteristics and the willingness to shop online. By mapping these characteristics, we then construct the geography of online shopping adoption in Belgium. Finally, we assess the impacts of this specific geography for the stakeholders that are adapting to this new reality. We conclude firstly that the well-educated man in his thirties with a well-paid job has the highest probability to shop online, independent of the level of urbanisation of the area he resides. Secondly, we predict over- and underestimations of the potential online buyers of up to 50% when assuming a homogeneous e-commerce penetration, especially in poorer urban areas. This implies a serious negligence for ecommerce practitioners and academics when ignoring the specific geography of the online shopping adoption.

Introduction

Twenty-three years after the founding of Amazon, business-to-consumer electronic commerce (B2C e-commerce) keeps rising. Over the last six years, Europe experienced an average annual increase in online sales turnover of 16% (E-commerce Europe, 2016b). Despite persistent growth rates around the EU however, levels of e-commerce adoption vary greatly among different member states. While only 16% of the population of Western Europe never shopped online in 2016, this number rises to 40% for Eastern Europe (Eurostat, 2017). The popularity of internet shopping provides retailers the opportunity of opening an additional distribution channel. At the same moment however it offers customers a wider market to choose from, hence increasing local competition and consumer power (Boschma and Weltevreden, 2008; Weltevreden, 2007). In response, retailers are required to be present online and ideally consider effective integration of their online and offline channels (Rimmer and Kam, 2018). In addition, in order to stand out brand creation and marketing have now become even more important, both for traditional and virtual merchants (Doherty and Ellis‐Chadwick, 2010). In parallel, the demand for home delivery services is growing at similar pace, resulting in a fragmentation of the goods distribution flows to the extent of a single item per delivery (Gevaers et al., 2011; Hesse, 2002). In consequence, recent literature estimates that up to 75% of the delivery costs originate from the last part of the distribution chain, i.e. the last mile (Gevaers et al., 2014). This not only puts pressure on traditional delivery models but threatens the livability of some urban areas, due to the increase in light good vehicles delivering parcels associated with the growth in online sales (Anderson and Leinbach, 2007; Browne, 2001; Cherrett et al., 2012). Resultantly, local administrators are facing pressure to accommodate sustainable growth in online shipments while simultaneously attempting to prevent the disintegration of retail areas within their jurisdiction (Browne and Allen, 1999). The former has resulted in an increased awareness for freight planning within cities’ administrations, a topic which up to now has always been overshadowed by the focus on passenger transport (Kiba-Janiak, 2017; Lindholm and Behrends, 2012). Furthermore, attempts are taken to improve the shopping experience within retail areas to limit the substitution of traditional purchases by online orders.