۱- Introduction

۲- Background

۳- Preliminaries

۴- Decision-making steps

۵- A case study for Jilin

۶- Conclusion

Reference

Abstract:

Renewable energy is the inevitable choice for the sustainable development of society and economy. How to select the most appropriate renewable energy for a region is a complex multicriterion decision making (MCDM) problem. Taking Jilin Province as an example, this paper proposes a new MCDM method. In order to better express the hesitancy, inconsistency and uncertainty of decision makers’ preferences, linguistic hesitant fuzzy set (LHFS) is proposed. On the basis of cloud model, the rule of transforming LHFS to quantitative values is defined. Subsequently, the distance measure and support measure are established. In consideration of the interdependency of criteria, an LHFS aggregation operator based on improved Choquet integral is proposed. Finally, the ranking result of the aggregated LHFS corresponding to each renewable energy alternative is obtained according to the expectation values. The result shows that the preferred renewable energy for Jilin is biomass energy, followed by wind energy, hydro energy and solar energy. The validation analysis and comparison analysis are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Introduction

Energy has played an important role in the social and economic development of the world. So far, fossil fuels have occupied the vast majority of energy consumption. Nearly 81% of the world’s energies are provided by fossil fuels. It is predicted that the world’s average growth rate of energy consumption is 1.8% per year until 2030[1]. With the growing demand of energy, conventional energy, especially for fossil fuels, raised fears of carbon emission, environment pollution and the depletion of fossil fuels. Such concerns drove many countries to develop and utilize renewable energy. Renewable energy is sustainable and environmentally friendly, for its energy is provided by naturally replenished outflow of energy without consuming natural resources. Thus, renewable energy has been paid more attention over the world in recent years. Various policies and investments were implemented to promote the utilization and development of renewable energy in different countries. In 2013, more than 144 countries made different renewable energy targets and policies to support renewable energy development. By 2013, renewable energy had supplied approximately 19% of the world’s final energy consumption. In 2015, renewable energy contributed 23% to electricity generation, which is estimated to reach 45% in 2040. In the future, renewable energy will gradually substitute for conventional energy and eventually dominate energy industry. Solar energy, wind energy, hydro energy, geothermal and biomass energy are different forms of renewable energy. The selection of an appropriate renewable energy for a given jurisdiction is important, as the sensible energy planning will develop new economic markets and create employment opportunities[2]. More importantly, the right energy selection will improve the structure of energy utilization. However, the selection process is a complex decision-making which involves comprehensive trade-offs[2], for each energy alternative has its own advantages and disadvantages from different perspectives. For example, wind energy is free of contamination, but has poor stability. In addition, decision-makers may have different opinions due to different experience and specialty.