The waste crisis in Campania has inspired a huge body of literature that has described its complex nature. Quantitative analysis in this regard provides useful insight into single aspects of the problem but from a static perspective. In this work, a dynamic model has been developed to analyse the interactions between the main elements of the waste system in Campania and their evolution over the critical time horizon. The model considers the process of capacity construction that has been developed to deal with the crisis and the flow of waste through the treatment options available, showing how the waste system behaves if such infrastructures are not able to cope with the amounts expected. The model also provides the analytical framework to explore the effects of alternative waste policies.
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Introduction

The solid waste management process is complex as it involves multiple actors and dimensions that dynamically affect each other and cannot be described from an isolated and static perspective. Waste management systems require adequate analysis tools and systemic approaches have proven useful in supporting policy decisions by providing a comprehensive representation of those systems, considering the interactions between their main elements and their evolution over time. The waste crisis in Campania is a clear example of this complexity. Since 1994, the region has experienced several periods of crisis that have revealed the weaknesses of its waste management system and, as some recent studies show, the problem is still the object of academic debate (Chifari et al., 2017; Ripa et al., 2017; Hornsby et al., 2017). The region was recently fined by the EU Court of Justice for failing to fulfil its obligation to create ‘‘an integrated network of installations to ensure waste disposal in the area” and there is still divergence at different institutional levels on the most adequate solution to the problem. The public perception of the crisis, as the press and the policy-makers termed it, relates to a problem of capacity, the development of which has been impeded by local criminality and the community, the former making profits by disposing of waste illegally, the latter opposing the expansion of capacity because of its ‘‘not in my backyard” attitude. However, academic analysis provides alternative theories, where a more complex picture emerges that contradicts the ‘‘oversimplified” understanding of the problem and moves the focus away from the criminal elements and community to the political inability to deal with the complexity of the problem and define an effective exit strategy to the crisis (D’Alisa and Armiero, 2013; D’Alisa et al., 2010; Rabitti, 2008). The waste crisis in Campania has inspired a huge body of literature (for a detailed review see D’Alisa et al., 2010, 2012) and different decision-making support tools have been proposed to deal with it: Chifari et al. (2017) analyse the municipal solid waste problem in Naples in 2012, based on a multi-scale integrated assessment combined with participatory process; Ripa et al. (2017) use life cycle analysis to identify critical points and driving factors on which to base waste management decisions; D’Alisa and Di Nola (2013) discuss the need to adapt waste management targets to the biophysical characteristics of the individual areas; D’Alisa et al. (2012) propose a novel set of indicators for the analysis of waste patterns; and Mastellone et al. (2009) assess different waste management scenarios by means of a material flow analysis. These analyses provide useful insights into the diverse aspects of the problem, although they rely on a static perspective, without offering a comprehensive dynamic representation of it. The failure to implement the waste management plans approved to deal with the crisis (2008, 2012) demonstrates the need for dynamic decision-making support tools that take into account the interactions between the main variables involved and their evolution over time. This is also recognised in the latest regional waste plan, updated in 2016, where a scenario analysis is conducted to calculate the regional need for different infrastructures over the period 2016–۲۰۲۰٫ Therefore, in this work, a dynamic analysis is proposed by means of a system dynamics model developed to represent the waste crisis in Campania over the critical time horizon and explore the effects of different waste management policy scenarios over a 30-year time horizon.