We present and discuss a new technique based on information theory to detect in advance favorable periods of wind activity (positive ramps) for electricity generation. In addition this technique could also help in the analysis of plant operation and management protocols design. Real data from wind power plants in Germany is used; this information is freely available in the internet with reliable registers every 15 minutes. A simple protocol to mix such wind energy production with electricity coming from conventional sources is proposed as a way to test the proposed algorithm. The eight-year period 2010-2017 is analyzed looking for different behaviors in wind activity. The first five years (2010-2014) are employed to calibrate the method, while the remaining three years (2015-2017) are used to test previous calibration without any further variation in the tuning possibilities described below. Thus, the proposed protocol is tried on under different seasonal wind conditions. Both the algorithm and the general protocol could be adjusted to optimize performances according to regional conditions. In addition, this algorithm can also be used in retrospective studies to adjust productivity to operational conditions.

Introduction

Wind energy production (WEP) contributes in a moderate way to the total electricity generation in most of the countries in the world. We will concentrate here on Germany where 16% of the total electricity production was due to wind during 2017 according to recent statistics [1]. In spite of its present modest contribution WEP is basically free (except for low operation costs) and its installed capacity grows steadily in most countries. Then, it is possible to imagine that wind farms will play a very important role in the future electricity generation all over the world. During the last five years the percentage of WEP has doubled in Germany. Thus, in 2017 more than 28 000 wind turbines onshore and 1000 wind turbines offshore have reached a productivity of about 105 TWh of electrical energy [1]. This development is part of a political program of the German government with the aim of transforming the future energy system to a higher use of renewable energies (RE) substituting for nuclear and fossil sources.