Abstract

We examine a superstition for which adherence is nearly universal among its target population. Using a combination of field interventions that involve unsuspecting participants and a lab-style value elicitation, we investigate the nature and strength of peoples’ underlying preferences. While a substantial minority of people are willing to incur a relatively high individual cost in order to adhere to the superstition, for many, adherence is contingent on the behavior of others. Our findings are consistent with the idea that it is the conforming nature of the majority that sustains the false beliefs of the minority.

۱ Introduction

Superstitions can influence behavior and economic outcomes in striking ways. Fear of the number 13 (“triskaidekaphobia”) causes hotel guests to avoid the 13th Floor, and many US buildings over twelve floors to have the 13th floor numbered 14. This can impede the response of emergency personnel, and some municipalities have banned the practice.1 Lucky and unlucky numbers influence the market price of real estate, equities, and other goods.2 Belief in the Chinese Zodiac influences the timing of births in many Asian families, and appears to influence parental investment as well. The disproportionate number of births in dragon years causes demand spikes for limited public services and may impact the labor market outcomes of the birth cohort.3