Indicators of technological emergence promise valuable intelligence to those determining R&D priorities. We present an implemented algorithm to calculate emergence scores for topical terms from abstract record sets. We offer a family of emergence indicators deriving from those scores. Primary emergence indicators identify “hot topic” terms. We then use those to generate secondary indicators that reflect organizations, countries, or authors especially active at frontiers in a target R&D domain. We also flag abstract records (papers or patents) rich in emergent technology content, and we score research fields on relative degree of emergence. This paper presents illustrative results for example topics – Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery, Non-Linear Programming, Dye Sensitized Solar Cells, and Big Data.

Introduction

Attention to emerging technologies is increasing. Such indicators can address varied subjects, ranging from breakthrough science to novel technology and on to commercial innovation. Foci can range from ‘micro’ (e.g., treating specific sub-topic activity patterns) through systematic ‘macro’ indications (e.g., disruptive technological system emergence). We focus at the micro level, seeking practical measures to distinguish “hot” R&D sub-topics. Such indicators of emergence can contribute to R&D policy and portfolio management, technology opportunities analyses (Porter and Detampel, 1995), and management of innovation. The U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition (FUSE) Program drew attention to the value of technology emergence indicators [http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/fuse]. FUSE supported four teams that explored ways to derive indicators via text analyses of Science, Technology & Innovation (ST&I) data resources. We have been involved in conceptualizing bases for emergence and framing candidate indicators (Alexander et al., 2012). We continue to work to generate viable indicators (Carley et al., 2018). This paper carries that effort forward to offer “emergence scores” for terms appearing in R&D abstract records. It goes on to use those emergent terms to distinguish cutting-edge “players” – research organizations, countries, or individuals based on their engagement of emerging technology content. We seek to distinguish topics drawing accelerating attention in research publication or patenting within a target domain. Our aim is to provide practical means to separate cutting-edge research from other research ongoing in a target domain. We go a second step to tally R&D activity on those cutting-edge topics by “players” – countries, organizations, or individuals. This can provide vital intelligence on who are leading the way to advance these frontiers.