۱٫ Introduction

۲٫ Theoretical background

۳٫ Methodology

۴٫ Current conditions in the two metropolitan areas

۵٫ Housing development scenarios in the Oslo metropolitan area

۶٫ Housing development scenarios in the Milan metropolitan area

۷٫ Discussion

۸٫ Conclusions

Acknowledgements

Appendix A. Supplementary data

References

Abstract

The article discusses futures in housing development by applying the approaches from ‘future studies’ to design two explorative scenarios reflecting alternative strategies for achieving sustainable and just housing development. The main aim is to develop scenarios that can achieve a specific normative goal: a future housing development that is both environmentally sustainable and socially just. Two scenarios are built – ecological modernisation and degrowth – that reflect different degrees of societal change, ranging from conventional to radical. The scenarios are applied to the two selected cases of the Milan and Oslo regions, drawing on the statistics of the contextual housing system and the document analysis on planning and housing. We further discuss how the specific scenarios can take place and which challenges will be encountered.

Introduction

This article aims to explore housing futures towards an integrated, normative sustainable development to meet the urgent need for addressing the environmental and social failures of the present dominant housing development model. Using the scenario approach in futures studies, we build two contrasting scenarios for housing development and contextualise them in two city regions – Milan and Oslo. The article is explorative in the sense that it starts with the recognition of the need for shifting the housing development trajectory and then envisions possible alternatives as a catalyst to liberate us from the existing constraints for a better future. Before taking the explorative journey, we will take a moment in the Introduction to address why such a need for shifting the housing development trajectory is crucial and urgent.