In this paper we present a novel method which enables an early and direct detection of technologies emerging from a mainstream technology due to technological speciation. This method uses variables that were originally introduced to characterize emerging technologies such as novelty, persistence, growth, and community. It is applicable to mainstream technologies and relies mainly on semantic patent analysis. We test it in the field of camera technology, which has a longstanding tradition and has been influenced by several technological generations. Based on a patent search, we develop a process that comprises three steps, starting with the extraction and evaluation of bi-grams from the patents, continuing with the identification and evaluation of patents with novel and persistent bi-grams, and concluding with the identification of application fields and technological speciation candidates. As a result, we observe several instances of technological speciation, such as the action camera, the depth camera and the dashboard camera. Our approach involves theoretical, managerial, and political implications; for example, it helps companies establish a system for the early identification and monitoring of emerging technologies.

Introduction

When the carbon fiber reinforcement technology came into existence, it dramatically influenced the way in which airplanes are built; it also led to opportunities in other industries such as the automotive, bicycle and wind turbines industries (Moehrle and Passing, 2016). Carbon fiber reinforcements are a typical example of an emerging technology. The significance of an emerging technology is not only due to the new opportunities that it may offer directly, but also to a multitude of impacts that may originate from it indirectly. An emerging technology has “the potential to create a new industry or transform an existing one” (Day and Schoemaker, 2000) with an immense impact on economy, society, and politics (Hung and Chu, 2006; Martin, 1995; Porter et al., 2002). Therefore, there is continuous interest in the topic of emerging technologies on the side of researchers, policy-makers, and companies, which is reflected in the increase of publications related to emerging technologies over the last decades (Rotolo et al., 2015). One important source of emerging technologies is the technological speciation from a mainstream technology (i.e. a mature, broadly elaborated technology covering several generations of development). In analogy to evolutionary biology, Adner and Levinthal (2002) define technological speciation as a phenomenon marked by two characteristics: First, an existing technology finds use in a new application domain, often represented by a specific niche of customer needs. Second, the technology is thereby often developed further in a way that differentiates the emerging technology from the lineage of the original technology.