مقاله انگلیسی رایگان در مورد استفاده از مدل های ارزیابی سرمایه گذاری در مذاکرات استراتژیک – الزویر 2018

1- Introduction

2- A performative perspective on IA models – framing, spillovers and calculative practices

3- Developing theory and methodology: CPE and the concept of imaginaries

4- The GB electricity industry: An historical and field analysis

5- Discussion: constructing and de-constructing the investment “crisis”- current profits, rates of return and alternative models of the foundational economy

6- Conclusions

References

Abstract

Although accepting that the Discounted Cash Flow model of investment appraisal has well known technical limitations, researchers have begun to explore its performative properties. This paper demonstrates how the Discounted Cash Flow model frames negotiations between actors around narratives of economization, marketization and financialization in a regulated industry. Reconnecting economics and politics, the theory of Cultural Political Economy is used to interpret and evaluate an empirical study of Great Britain’s electricity generating industry. Although alternative imaginaries, based on political and employment goals, have historically influenced investment decision making in the industry, the current narrative of investment appraisal is dominated by Discounted Cash Flow models. These models have allowed industry players to construct imaginaries of an investment hiatus, leading to the possibility of future power cuts and blackouts, and a need for guaranteed prices.

Introduction

Much of the Investment Appraisal (IA) literature conforms to (Northcott (1991):221) observation that Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)1 concepts proceeded from economic literature, conveying many of the basic premises of neo-classical theory. Economic literature introduces notions of economic efficiency and shareholder wealth maximization, which are embedded in a normative context of economic formalism and instrumentalism (Çalıs¸ kan & Callon, 2009). We argue that models of investment, such as DCF and Net Present Value (NPV), should not be perceived as purely passive calculative techniques. Accounting models such as DCF, can “do things” not just fulfilling the conventional prescriptive role of assisting human actors to make investment decisions, but also helping ‘to create and distribute Homo Economicus… ’ as ‘ … economic agents result [ing] from the framing and distribution of calculative agencies’ (Vosselman, 2014, p. 184). Yet the argument presented here is not merely that human ontologies can be changed but ‘that calculation and noncalculation reside not primarily within human subjects but in material arrangements, systems of measurement, and methods of displacement – or their absence’ (Callon & Law, 2005, p. 718). In this sense, the IA model is itself an actor and ‘rather than representing reality, directly intervenes to construct the reality it purports to describe … ’ (Cushen, 2013, p. 316). We develop these performative aspects of IA models (Doganova & Eyquem-Renault, 2009) in the empirical context of negotiations about the construction of new electricity generating plants (known generally as Power Stations). Just as Callon (1998a; 2007) and MacKenzie (2007) have shown how a model such as the BlackScholes formula can help make derivative markets; our submission is that the NPV/DCF model can frame public policy debates in a particular way. Our specific public policy concerns relate to negotiations around the regulation of the electricity generation industry. Such negotiations could draw on diverse perspectives, such as: scientific, engineering, political, and regulatory. Although significant negotiations centre on economic concepts (Hoffmann, 2007), we argue that an economic focus is not inevitable, but rather arises from processes of economization (Çalıs¸ kan & Callon, 2009), marketization (Çalıs¸ kan & Callon, 2010), and financialization (Cushen, 2013) supported by various human and non-human actors.