Abstract

In an era of global environmental challenges, understanding the dynamics of food production is crucial, particularly in regions prone to food insecurity and susceptible to climatic variations. Despite extensive research on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), a thorough examination of the combined effects of various determinants, including food prices and institutional quality, on food security remains limited. Using panel data from 2002 to 2020, this study explores the effects of agricultural land, population growth, environmental degradation, income per capita, food prices, capital formation, and institutional quality on food security in 32 SSA countries. Based on the Pedroni and Kao cointegration test outcomes, a long-run correlation between food security and its influencing factors is evident. The findings from the pooled mean group (PMG) models reveal that extended agricultural land leads to enhanced food security both in the short- and long-run. Likewise, population expansion, rising per capita income, and capital formation drive higher food demand, contributing positively to food security outcomes. Conversely, environmental degradation poses a significant threat, impairing food security in the SSA. Mixed results are observed with food prices, where higher prices can both enhance and reduce food security. The poor institutional quality in SSA correlates with food insecurity. Importantly, the Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test results reveal bidirectional causality between food security and most variables, except for food inflation and institutional quality. The method of moments quantile regression (MMQR) strengthens the robustness of the study findings. Building on these insights, the study recommends focusing on sustainable land use practices, effective environmental management strategies, increased agricultural investment, governance reforms, and implementing balanced pricing mechanisms.

Introduction

Food security remains a prominent global concern, as asserted in Sustainable Development Goal 2 of the 2030 Agenda. The goal of ending hunger, food insecurity, and undernutrition has been the focus of recent studies [ 1 , 2 ]. Ensuring access to food and its availability is vital for enhancing human development and potential, as it plays a critical role in strengthening human capabilities [ 3 ]. Numerous interrelated variables, including population expansion, climatic issues, conflicts, and land degradation, have threatened global food security [ 4 , 5 ]. Since the beginning of the industrial age, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have increased, resulting in greater radiative force that affects the atmosphere, leading to the warming of the earth’s surface and climatic changes [ 6 ]. Consequently, elevated air temperatures, heavy rainfall, and prolonged droughts affected water availability and agricultural yield, ultimately leading to a reduction in food availability and compromising food security [ 7 ]. Environmental shifts greatly affect the lives of rural residents, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), who rely predominantly on agriculture for sustenance [ 8 ]. Hence, recognizing and adopting sustainable development strategies is essential to ensuring food security and self-reliance within the agricultural sector while also meeting the growing need for food in the face of land degradation [ 9 ].

Evaluating food security is crucial for aid, famine risk monitoring, nutrition assessment, and policy shaping, requiring global attention from professionals, policymakers, and researchers [ 10 ]. As FAO et al. [ 11 ] highlight, food security is a binary state—a person can be either food-secure or insecure. Food security has continuously acquired prominence and economic relevance since the 1974 World Food Conference, which focused heavily on issues related to hunger, famine, and the food crisis [ 12 , 13 ]. Although the description of food security has developed over time, it continues to denote a condition where all individuals consistently possess physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, nutritionally adequate food that meets their dietary preferences and requirements, enabling them to maintain active and healthy lifestyles. The four main pillars of this comprehensive definition are utilization, affordability, stability, and availability [ 14 , 15 ]. The declining production of major food crops due to environmental degradation has food security implications in low-income countries [ 2 ]. Besides, Pérez-Escamilla [ 16 ] points out that inadequate food has harmful consequences for physical, emotional, and cognitive well-being, disrupting social and environmental balance with far-reaching implications. Additionally, Burchi and De Muro [ 17 ] suggested that inadequate education, health, and essential life skills can contribute to food insecurity.

Conclusion

In the context of mounting global environmental trials, it becomes imperative to comprehend the complexities of food security dynamics, especially in areas grappling with food shortages, vulnerable to climatic fluctuations, and undergoing rapid demographic transformations. Although there is a substantial body of research addressing agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, a comprehensive analysis of the collective impact of diverse factors, such as food pricing dynamics and the quality of institutional frameworks, on food security is still notably scarce. Therefore, this study utilizes panel data from 2002 to 2020 to examine the effects of agricultural land, population growth, environmental degradation, food prices, gross capital formation, and institutional quality on food security in 32 SSA countries. The study identified cross-sectional dependence to apply panel cointegration methods such as PMG and MG and refuted the null hypothesis that the slope coefficients are homogeneous. Regarding this, we employed second-generation unit root tests, specifically CADF and CIPS, to ascertain the integration order of the variables, revealing a mixed stationarity of I (0) and I (1). Furthermore, the long-run cointegration relationship between the scrutinized variables and food security was established through Pedroni and Kao cointegration tests. The MMQR analysis confirmed the robustness of the long-run findings obtained through the PMG method. Additionally, the study utilized the Dumitrescu-Hurlin test to ascertain the causality pathways among these variables.

Abstract

Food security is pivotal for national sustainable development. This study utilizes panel data from 31 Chinese provinces spanning from 1990 to 2021 to construct distinct indicator systems for urban–rural integration and food security. The entropy method is employed to assess levels of urban–rural integration and food security, with their inter-relationship examined through a fixed-effects model. Additionally, this study conducts rigorous robustness and endogeneity tests, alongside comprehensive heterogeneity analyses across various dimensions and regions. The findings underscore the significant role of urban–rural integration in enhancing food security, particularly within spatial, social, and economic dimensions, albeit encountering challenges in ecological integration. Moreover, the impact of urban–rural integration on food security manifests differently across diverse food-producing regions, exhibiting notable advantages in primary production and distribution hubs while being negligible in balanced regions. These results accentuate the critical necessity for refining urban–rural integration strategies to bolster food security. Consequently, in formulating agricultural regional policies, careful consideration of resource allocation and the developmental stages of each region is imperative to ensure food security and promote sustainable agricultural practices.

Introduction

Food security is fundamentally linked to human well-being, acting as a crucial safeguard for national economic development and playing a direct role in ensuring peace and stability [1]. As we look to the future, the imperative of maintaining food security becomes a global priority, essential for achieving various Millennium Development Goals [2,3]. According to the “2018 World Urbanization Prospects” report, by the mid-21st century, approximately two-thirds (68%) of the world’s population will reside in urban areas, with a projected increase of 2.5 billion in the global urban population by 2050, nearly 90% of which will occur in the developing regions of Asia and Africa [4]. This urban concentration, along with ongoing expansion, poses significant challenges, including a shrinking rural workforce, diminishing arable land, environmental degradation, and compromised food security. The rapid pace of urbanization challenges the development of sustainable production and existing consumption models, necessitating targeted initiatives to manage the increased food consumption of urban populations; enhance urban dietary patterns in response to shifts in food demand, primarily through the efficient reallocation of agricultural resources; and maintain essential interactions between urban and rural areas in developing countries.

The realm of food security, marked by inherent complexity and dynamism, is influenced by a confluence of factors, including global pandemics, geopolitical strife, and climatic volatility, which have introduced challenges on an unprecedented scale [5,6]. In China, significant advances have been achieved in food production, supply chains, and agricultural economic development. Notably, China currently supports 22% of the global populace whilst possessing only 7% of the planet’s arable land [7]. For fourteen consecutive years, China’s per capita food availability has exceeded the globally recognized safety threshold of 400 kg per year, marking a crucial milestone in achieving grain self-sufficiency and the absolute security of staple foods. Despite these advances, a substantial demographic base continues to drive significant food demand, further intensified through the processes of urbanization and rapid economic growth, thereby increasing food requirements across both urban and rural sectors. Enhancements in urban–rural dynamics have facilitated resource distribution; however, disparities in resource allocation continue to pose risks to food security. The promotion of urban–rural integration strategies aims to optimize resource allocation efficiency, thereby reinforcing food security paradigms. The advances in agricultural technology have significantly increased food production levels; however, challenges such as land scarcity, workforce attrition, and an aging demographic persist [8,9]. Ensuring a stable and sufficient food supply remains critical [10]. Addressing the basic nutritional needs of the population will underpin food security. The historical data from the years 1949 to 2021 demonstrate the effective maintenance of per capita food consumption for urban and rural residents, with the food supply–demand ratio rising from 1.05 in 1949 to 3.68. As shown in Figure 1, as the trajectory of per capita food production approaches its peak, showing only a marginal decline, and with the diversification of the food supply leading to a reduction in per capita food demand, China is compelled to recalibrate its food security strategy to address the emerging challenges and shifts in paradigms.

Results

4.1. Analysis of Urban–Rural Integration and Food Security Measurement Results
4.1.1. Analysis of Food Security Measurement Results
Figure 3 illustrates the levels of food security across China’s 31 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) from 1990 to 2021, highlighting a consistent enhancement in food security across the provinces. Key grain-producing regions such as Heilongjiang, Henan, and Shandong remain pivotal in ensuring food security despite approaching saturation in their capacity. Leveraging their abundant resources, these primary production areas have efficiently supplied food to major consumption centers, fostering a synergy of regional strengths. Concurrently with economic progress, the focal point of food security is gradually shifting northward, with Xinjiang, Shanxi, and Qinghai emerging as critical hubs for food reserve capabilities, demonstrating significant potential. Although primary consumption areas display low self-sufficiency, their economic influence and robust infrastructure support reliance on primary production regions and trade to ensure food security. Advancements in transportation, technology, and digitalization are steadily enhancing food supply capabilities, underscoring the importance of maintaining regional food security equilibrium as a fundamental aspect of revising the national food security strategy.

Abstract

The sense of belonging to a community, or social cohesion, is established in food spaces enabled by three separate and unique mechanisms: proximity, frequency, and interactions. This study looks specifically at the Fulton Street Farmers Market in Grand Rapids and the effects the COVID-19 pandemic had on the social benefits derived from the mechanisms of social cohesion, in an attempt to identify and discover new ways to leverage social cohesion in food spaces. Three populations were identified at the farmers market: customers, vendors, and market staff. Surveys and informal interviews provided evidence that proximity to and within the market, higher frequencies of attendance, and greater instances of interactions indicate a trend towards stronger feelings of belonging and connectedness (social cohesion) at the farmers market. Data on COVID-19 shows the market became a space where social cohesion was possible and may have even increased in part due to higher attendance, supported by higher food assistance transactions.

Highlights

ABSTRACT

Abbreviations

Keywords

Introduction

Clarifying the nomenclature: towards a definition of SynBio chassis

The roadmap from being a rDNA host to a fully-fledged certified SynBio chassis

Safe implementation of SynBio agents: standardized chassis should ease ERA certifications

Barcoding as an avenue to ease traceability and manage contingencies

The need of new ERA standards and metrics

Pseudomonas putida as an example of how to become a SynBio chassis

Is P. putida safe?

Conclusion

Acknowledgements

References

ABSTRACT

At the onset of the 4th Industrial Revolution, the role of synthetic biology (SynBio) as a fuel for the bioeconomy requires clarification of the terms typically adopted by this growing scientific-technical field. The concept of the chassis as a defined, reusable biological frame where non-native components can be plugged in and out to create new functionalities lies at the boundary between frontline bioengineering and more traditional recombinant DNA technology. As synthetic biology leaves academic laboratories and starts penetrating industrial and environmental realms regulatory agencies demand clear definitions and descriptions of SynBio constituents, processes and products. In this article, the state of the ongoing discussion on what is a chassis is reviewed, a non-equivocal nomenclature for the jargon used is proposed and objective criteria are recommended for distinguishing SynBio agents from traditional GMOs. The use of genomic barcodes as unique identifiers is strongly advocated.

Introduction

The language of physics and engineering uses clear definitions of forces, measures, and units to be precise and unequivocal. If one says ampere, kilometer, gravity or screw pitch it is known exactly what the term means. In contrast, the jargon of synthetic biology (SynBio), which aims at transforming biology to an engineering discipline is peppered with words and metaphors which seem to be more a declaration of intentions (or wishes) than an accurate description of the items named thereby. One of the central notions of contemporary SynBio is that of chassis [[1], [2], [3], [4]] a term that evokes the basic frame of a car to which a number of components can be added in response to specifications and/or customers’ desires (from French: châssis = frame; latin capsa = container, box). By the same token, the word started to be used in the early 2000s by the incipient SynBio community of the time as a somewhat humorous and engineering-sounding description of the biological host used as the recipient of recombinant DNA — which by that time meant nearly exclusively Escherichia coli. The word chassis (and the powerful metaphor embodied in it) became an instant success and was quickly incorporated into the habitual discourse of SynBio-as-engineering. However, the word has acquired new meanings over the years and has been used in many different contexts beyond its original and somewhat modest significance.

Highlights

Abstract

Keywords

1. Introduction

2. Material and methods

2.1. Study area

2.2. Data collection

2.3. Statistical analysis

3. Results

4. Discussion

5. Conclusion

Author statement

Acknowledgements

References

Abstract

The study aims to identify the influencing factors and their impact level on the public agricultural land management. The results show that the policy group is the most influential with an impact level of 38.06 %, followed by the financial group with an impact level of 36.17 %, the management factor with an impact level of 25.77 %. In order to improve the efficiency of the management of public agricultural land fund, it is necessary to amend and supplement a number of policies and laws, such as setting the maximum lease time of public agricultural land fund to be equal to the duration of district-level land use planning; strengthening the propagation and dissemination of land law; rational use of fragmented and scattered land parcels; settling encroached or occupied land plots through conversion of land use purposes into residential or public purposes of the commune.

1. Introduction

In Vietnam, the public agricultural land fund is the land area not exceeding 5% of the total land area for annual crops, land for perennial crops and aquaculture land of a commune. In addition to supplementing the public agricultural land fund, there are other sources such as agricultural land returned by organizations, households and individuals or donated with the right to use to the State, reclaimed land, recovered agricultural land. It is the source to form or supplement the agricultural land fund used for public purposes of the commune. The fund of public agricultural land managed and used by the commune is to meet the needs of constructing cultural, physical training and sport facilities, health care, public entertainment, cemeteries and other works of the commune and for rent when not in use to collect land rental for public purposes of the commune. According to Vietnam’s land law, land is owned by the people and is uniformly managed by the State. People do not have the right to own land, can only use the land and transfer the land use right when needed. Land management in general, and management of public agricultural land fund in particular is the State’s purposeful impact on land in order to use land efficiently and sustainably in association with environmental protection (Pham Phuong Nam and Nguyen Van Quan, 2014). The National Assembly manages land through the promulgation of land legislation, decisions on land use planning and plans throughout the country, and exercises the supreme supervision over land management and use. The Government uniformly manages land, including land funds nationwide. The commune-level People’s Committee directly manages and leases public agricultural land fund for a period not exceeding 5 years. So far there have been a number of studies on different aspects of land management in general and public agricultural land in particular. The study of Le Thi Thanh Xuan et al. (2015) has pointed out some limitations in the management of public agricultural land such as leasing land to wrong subjects, illegally transferring public land, using land for improper purposes, encroaching and occupying public agricultural land; Public land management records are not regularly updated. According to Nguyen Huu Ngu et al. (2017), public agricultural land fund is still scattered, small plot land area; rental of public land without contracts should affect the efficiency of managing public agricultural land, causing rent losses.

Highlights

Abstract

Keywords

1. Introduction

2. Major constraints of the agriculture sector in Nepal

3. Potential pathways to build resilience and revitalize the agriculture sector in Nepal

4. Conclusion

Funding declaration

Declaration of Competing Interest

Appendix A. Supplementary data

References

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has seriously affected the agrarian and remittance-based economy of Nepal. Dwindling the employment opportunities and disrupting the food production and distribution channels, the pandemic has further exacerbated the unemployment and food insecurity situation. Providing employment opportunities and livelihood support to pandemic-affected households has, therefore, become increasingly challenging but a necessary priority to the government. Therefore, to build a sustainable and resilient economy that generates employment and enhance agricultural productivity, revitalization of the constraints-ridden agriculture sector is essential as it still contributes 65% and 24.3% to employment and Gross Domestic Product, respectively. Against this backdrop, this paper presents major pathways and priority actions to rebuild and revitalize the growth of the agricultural sector in Nepal while addressing the challenge posed by the pandemic to generate employment and income-earning opportunities. We emphasize the need for scale-appropriate strategies, programs and plans to build resilience of production, supply chains, and agribusiness systems. We conclude that the government should initially focus on targeted priority interventions to the pandemic-affected farmers and agro-entrepreneurs, and strengthen their productive, competitive, and adaptive capacities. These need to be followed by long-term strategies such as development of agricultural infrastructure, innovative policies, legal instruments, and institutional arrangements, including strengthening of the recently established local governments in line with the federal structure of Nepal.

1. Introduction

COVID-19 (or SARS-CoV-2) is a global pandemic of enormous proportion that has severely affected human lives and the global economy (UNDP, 2020b). The virus has spread to over 213 countries and territories infecting more than 65.1 million people and killing over 1.5 million by 3 December 2020 (Worldometer, 2020). Lockdowns and mobility restrictions have been the common responses to the pandemic, but they have disrupted production, input and output markets, supply chains, global trade, travel, and tourism; delivering an enormous shock to the global economy in 2020 as indicated by early estimates of 495 million job losses and 5.2% contraction on global output (ILO, 2020a; World Bank, 2020b).

The health and economic impacts of the pandemic have been severe in countries that have weak health systems and rely heavily on trade, tourism, and remittances (World Bank, 2020b). Like many other severely affected countries, Nepal has been experiencing health and economic impacts of COVID-19. Over 237,589 infections and 1551 deaths have been reported in Nepal by 3 December 2020 (MOHP, 2020) and the country has entered a second wave that is more severe than the first (World Bank, 2020f). COVID-19 and associated nationwide complete (from 24 March to 21 July 2020) and partial (after 21 July) lockdowns have severely affected the Nepalese economy through multiple channels: a) the collapse of tourism, trade, and hospitality sectors, affecting over one million jobs; b) loss of foreign jobs and return of migrants, affecting remittance earnings; and c) disruption of production and supply chains of the industrial and agricultural products, affecting the livelihoods of millions of people (Baniya et al., 2020; ILO, 2020b; World Bank, 2020c).

Highlights

Abstract

Keywords

1. Introduction

2. Learning from the ghosts of agriculture past

3. From the past into our agriculture present

4. Anticipating our agricultural future

5. Conclusion

Declaration of competing interest

Acknowledgements

References

Abstract

Strategic foresight is systematic means to explore plausible futures. In the agricultural context, strategic foresight allows decision-makers to explore how alternative investments in agriculture research may function given anticipated futures associated with a variety of drivers ranging from climate change to increasing wealth to a changing policy environment. This paper presents an overview and context for six recently published articles in Global Food Security that comprise a virtual special issue on agricultural futures. Each of the papers takes a distinct perspective and addresses key issues from how past trends drive future outcomes to specific commodity systems to issues around employment and rural transformation. While each of the included papers stands on its own merits, the collection presents a unique opportunity to unpack the role of investment in agriculture research from a variety of perspectives. Collectively, the special issue offers insights to support current and future investment planning to better target desired outcomes associated with long-term agricultural research.

1. Introduction

Since agriculture first appeared in the Fertile Crescent some 10,000 years ago, humankind has been working to make it better. Early farmers quickly learned that different crops had different properties, and that a variety of tools could help improve agricultural outcomes under different conditions. In the present day, our interconnected agricultural systems are still the foundation of the global food system, and the latest technologies from improved crop varieties to digital agro-advisory systems provide modern farmers with a range of solutions that would have been unimaginable even a few decades ago.

Whether talking about an ancestral farmer in the Fertile Crescent, a large-scale farmer in North America, or a small-scale farmer in sub-Saharan Africa, farmers have long recognized the need to develop their craft on an ongoing basis. Agricultural research and innovation, both informal and formal, have arguably been the “secret sauce” that has allowed economies to diversify, grow, and sustain the Earth’s population over decades and even millennia.

Highlights

Abstract

Keywords

1. Introduction

2. Impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on agriculture

3. Three potential mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of major crises and disasters on agriculture

3.1. Developing crisis management plans and designing resilience-promoting policies

3.2. The need to create and exploit community marketing schemes

3.3. Can smart farming technologies and big data help farmers deal with major crises or disasters?

4. Conclusions

Declaration of Competing Interest

Acknowledgments

References

Abstract
The COVID-19 outbreak was an unprecedented situation that uncovered forgotten interconnections and interdependencies between agriculture, society, and economy, whereas it also brought to the fore the vulnerability of agrifood production to external disturbances. Building upon the ongoing experience of the COVID-19 pandemic, in this short communication, we discuss three potential mechanisms that, in our opinion, can mitigate the impacts of major crises or disasters in agriculture: resilience-promoting policies, community marketing schemes, and smart farming technology. We argue that resilience-promoting policies should focus on the development of crisis management plans and enhance farmers’ capacity to cope with external disturbances. We also stress the need to promote community marketing conduits that ensure an income floor for farmers while in parallel facilitating consumer access to agrifood products when mainstream distribution channels under-serve them. Finally, we discuss some issues that need to be solved to ensure that smart technology and big data can help farmers overcome external shocks.

1. Introduction
COVID-19 appeared as a black swan, which puts at risk the lives of millions of people through its massive spread (Whitworth, 2020), simultaneously prompting new fears about the economic recession that is expected to follow the pandemic (Goodell, 2020; Snooks, 2020). After the identification of the first infections in China in December 2019, the virus began surging in other countries in February 2020 (Pedrosa, 2020). On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization officially announced the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic (WHO, 2020). To protect public health, governments around the world – even those whose leaders expressed denial of COVID-19 at the beginning of the pandemic – initiated several measures (ranging from media announcements to partial or even complete lockdown) to mitigate the disease. These measures led to profound changes in consumers buying behavior and food consumption patterns, disturbances in transportation networks, and the closure of some food suppliers (Nakat & Bou-Mitri, 2020). Such an upheaval created uncertainty shocks that impacted every sector of social and economic life, including agriculture.

1- Introduction

2- Background

3- Theoretical Framework

4- Econometric model

5- Data

6- Results and discussion

7- Conclusion and policy implications

References

Abstract

This study investigates the factors affecting farmland rental prices in China. Special emphasis is put on the capitalization of China’s grain subsidy program into land rental rates. Using national representative farm-level data, Heckman sample selection model, and quantile regression (QR) approach, we find that a 10% increase in grain subsidy payments for contracted farmland increases the farmland rental price by about 1%. However, quantile regression results show that the capitalization rate is heterogeneous and varies across the distribution. Findings suggest that family labor input and farm location are important factors driving up farmland rental prices. Moreover, for farm size, rental experience, and natural disaster we detect a negative impact on land rental prices.

Introduction

To promote grain production, ensure food security, and improve rural household income, China’s government implemented a national grain subsidy program in 2004 (Yi et al., 2015). Since its inception, the program’s size has increased continuously (Huang et al., 2013), and the program accounted for 22% of the government’s annual agricultural and environmental expenditures in 2014 (Yi and McCarl, 2018). The government initially designed the grain subsidy program (GSP) to increase grain production and to ensure national food security. Thus, researchers focused their efforts on estimating the effects of GSP on agricultural output and rural livelihoods. For instance, Tan et al. (2006) using micro survey data found that the direct grain subsidy has had a modest impact on farmers’ income and has reduced income inequality in villages. However, Huang et al. (2011) detected that grain subsidies have no impact on grain production and demand for production inputs. In a recent study, Huang and Yang (2017) stated that the grain subsidy’s impact on farmers’ income was negligible because the size of the subsidy per farmer was minimal. While there has recently been ample research on developments in land use and rural adjustments in China (e.g. Zhang et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2018; Liu, 2018; Yang et al., 2018; Liu and Li, 2017; Liu et al., 2014; Li et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2013), no study has examined China’s GSP from the perspective of human-land relationships, or specifically rural households’ land rental activities (e.g., farmland rental behavior, farmland rental prices). During the transition of China’s production mode and land use pattern, the farmland rental market is believed to be an essential channel in solving land fragmentation and small-scale nature of Chinese farms (Zhou et al., 2019).

1- Introduction

2- Theoretical framing

3- Materials and methods

4- The technology package and its introduction

5- Access to components of the technology

6- Analysis of the underlying mechanisms

7- Discussion

References

Abstract

In this article we explore whether and how the dynamics of access shape the scaling of modern agricultural technologies. It is based on the experience of an agricultural research for development (AR4D) project called CASCAPE, which aims to validate and scale agricultural best practices for smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. The socio-political dynamics of external interventions are often taken for granted contextual factors in AR4D projects. By contrast, this article takes this context as the point of departure for its analysis. The aim of this in-depth case study is to unpack the concept of access as condition for scaling of agricultural technologies. We identify and analyse the mechanisms that determine access to the various components of a malt barley technology package which was introduced in two highland communities in southern Ethiopia (and later ‘scaled’ to a range of other communities). Our research approach is technographic, implying that we consider the technology to contain both material and social components. The findings suggest that social and clan-based exchange mechanisms (such as clan-based loyalty, reciprocity and vertical accountability) are often rendered invisible even though they are of critical importance in governing access to the material and social components of modern agricultural technologies. Ignoring this socio-political context in the malt barley interventions resulted in an unintended scaling effect in terms of widening the social and economic gap between a few better off farmers and a larger group of poor farmers. The paper thus provides evidence that the socio-political dynamics of access to technology can have an important influence on its wide spread application and may complicate efforts to scale the uptake of technology. Paying more attention to such processes would help to improve the effectiveness of AR4D efforts.

Introduction

It is often argued that one way to improve food security in developing countries is to encourage th e wide-spread adoption of agricultural technologies by smallholder farmers. As a result, donors are increasingly pushing for ‘outcomes at scale’ within Agricultural Research for Development (AR4D) (Giller et al., 2017). In some lowincome countries, this pressure results in a plethora of AR4D-initiatives targeting rural communities (Pingali and Spielman, 2016). Adoption rates are a commonly accepted metric for measuring progress in AR4D, but these have increasingly become subject to critiques (Andersson and D’Souza, 2014; Glover et al., 2016). One main thread of these critiques is that adoption cannot be understood as a mere binary, timeless and individual choice for the use of a particular artefact by the wider target audience as this reflects a narrow understanding of what constitutes a technology and the process of technological change. Rather, one should consider technology as a combination of social practices and material elements (Jansen and Vellema, 2011). This understanding leads us to see the process of technological change as one of (re-)configuring the social and material, i.e. re-engineering the relations between the social and material elements of a system (Klerkx et al., 2010; Mosely, 2017). This should lead to greater acknowledgement of the importance of an enabling environment for scaling agricultural innovations.

2- Approaches to resource allocation for biosecurity in Australia

3- The portfolio model

4- Application to hawkweed, FMD, RIFA, and PFF in Australia

5- Portfolio allocation under different budget constraints

6- Policy implications for budget allocation in biosecurity

7- Concluding remarks

References

Abstract

This paper presents a practical model for optimally allocating a budget across different biosecurity threats and measures (e.g. prevention or border quarantine, active surveillance for early detection, and containment and eradication measures) to ensure the highest rate of return. Our portfolio model differs from the common principle, which ranks alternative projects by their benefit cost ratios and picks the one that generates the highest average benefit cost ratio. The model we propose, instead, aims to allocate shares of the budget to the species where it is most cost‐effective, and consequently determine the optimal scale of the control program for each threat under varying budget constraints. The cost‐effectiveness of each block of budget spent on a threat is determined by minimising its expected total cost, including the damages it inflicts, and the control expenditures incurred in preventing or mitigating damages. As an illustration, the model is applied to the optimal allocation of a budget across four of Australia’s most dangerous pests and diseases: red imported fire ants; foot‐and‐mouth disease; papaya fruit fly; and orange hawkweed. The model can readily be extended to consider more species and activities, and more complex settings including cases where detailed spatial and temporal information needs to be considered.

Introduction

Biological invasions and pathogens pose a major threat to industry, the environment and human health, causing billions of dollars in damages every year (Pimentel et al. 2005; Sinden et al. 2005). The cost inflicted by biosecurity threats includes not only economic and environmental damages, but also the control costs incurred in preventing or mitigating their effects. Since resources to address these ever-increasing threats are limited, it is essential that these resources are used efficiently. As a result, public biosecurity agencies face challenging decisions of how best to allocate scarce resources when they attempt to prevent, suppress, and eradicate exotic and established pests and diseases (Perrings et al. 2010; Yemshanov et al. 2014; Akter et al. 2015).

A single reference point (SRP) is typically employed in traditional studies on the multi-attribute decision making (MADM) method. However, SRP lacks the advantage of the multiplicity of reference points and is thus unable to adequately describe loss aversion actions. With the goal of determining the loss aversion characteristics of decision makers, this work proposes an MADM method that is based on double reference points (DRPs) to solve the MADM problem using crisp and interval fuzzy numbers. First, this work describes the universality of decision-making problems with DRPs and then evaluates the characteristics of DRPs and their effects on decision making. Second, attitude and utility functions are established on the basis of the requirements of loss aversion. Third, considering the ‘‘one-vote veto’’ characteristic of a ‘‘dissatisfaction’’ attitude, a binary utility value is created by integrating the occurrence probability p, and the utility value u. The fourth, the main characteristics of and the aggregation method for the binary utility value are analyzed and established. Finally, a new decision-making method is applied to resolve the location decision of an agricultural product logistics center. Results indicate that the relationship between attribute and reference point significantly influences decision behavior. Compared with the traditional decision-making method, the proposed decision-making method can effectively identify the feasibility levels of alternatives. The ranking of the proposed decision-making method for feasible alternatives is basically the same as that of the traditional decision-making method. These results can effectively help solve agricultural engineering problems and broaden the coverage of and provide references for MADM research.

Introduction

Multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) problem refers to the ranking and selection of finite alternatives with multiple attributes [1], [2]. Owing to the MADM problems generally occurring in daily production and activities [1]–[5], the academic community has carried out comprehensive analyses. Today, studies on MADM problems come in two forms: those focused on perfect rational decision making and those focused on bounded rational decision making. The former is typically based on expected utility theory and is frequently adopted to solve MADM problems. The recent studies on the theory and method of MADM suggest that the research on MADM based on complete rationality has achieved substantial results [6], [7], [8]. The latter type is based on loss aversion theory. According to this theory, loss, relative to a reference point, produces greater psychological utility than the same amount of gain does [9], [10]. Loss aversion is a common phenomenon that is rooted in people’s decisionmaking actions and occurs in the areas of politics, economics, athletics, and so on [10]–[12]. Tom et al. even published a thesis on the science that proves loss aversion as a basic mechanism of human beings or animals [13].